Match Info

Date: 28 February 2021, Sunday 🏁 Finished


	Carpi		Fermana

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.2	3.1
	2.1	3.2	3.1
	2.1	3.2	3.1
	2.21	2.9	3.15
	2.31	3.23	3.25
	2.25	3.1	3.2
	2.23	3.16	3.16	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↑ (2.11)	3.14 ↓ (3.18)	3.15 ↑ (3.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carpi
41.7%

Draw
29.2%

Fermana
29.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

42.9%

28.4%

28.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.5%

19.5%

41.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carpi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Fermana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carpi than the current prediction. (-12.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Carpi that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fermana than the current prediction. (+12.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Fermana could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Carpi - Fermana Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

This time we will watch a game between teams from the middle of a tournament table (ranked 14 and 13).

Carpi is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Fermana is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Fermana could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Carpi will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Carpi won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5-1.

Including matches at home between the teams Carpi won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carpi FC
Italian Serie C Group B
22.02.21	Cesena - Carpi	3:0 ✺
17.02.21	Carpi - Südtirol-Alto Adige	0:0 ✺
14.02.21	Arezzo - Carpi	3:3 ✺
10.02.21	Padova - Carpi	6:0 ✺
07.02.21	Carpi - Imolese	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LTTLL
- US Fermana
Italian Serie C Group B
21.02.21	Fermana - Imolese	2:0 ✺
16.02.21	Gubbio - Fermana	1:1 ✺
07.02.21	Padova - Fermana	1:0 ✺
03.02.21	Fermana - Sambenedettese	1:0 ✺
30.01.21	Fermana - Südtirol-Alto Adige	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 WTLWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group B
01.11.20	Fermana - Carpi	0:1
17.11.19	Carpi - Fermana	4:0
Club Friendly
27.07.18	Carpi - Fermana	0:1

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carpi FC
Italian Serie C Group A
01.11.26	Carpi - Renate	✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
28.10.26	Carpi - Ravenna	✺

Carpi - Fermana