Match Info

Date: 26 September 2022, Monday

Location: Estadio Municipal Cartagonova (Cartagena)

Referee: Reig S. A. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Optus Sport
Croatia	Arena Sport
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3
France	beIN Sports Max
Portugal	Eleven Sports
Slovenia	Arena Sport


	Cartagena		Deportivo Alavés

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.25	2.8	Watch
	2.45	3	2.75
	2.55	3.25	2.75
	2.55	3.1	2.75
	2.68	3.23	2.91
				Watch
	2.54	3.28	2.76	Watch
	2.6	3.15	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.56 ↓ (2.73)	3.18 ↑ (3.08)	2.79 ↑ (2.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cartagena
36.7%

Draw
29.6%

Deportivo Alavés
33.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34%

30.1%

35.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.6%

32.4%

38.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cartagena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Deportivo Alavés has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cartagena than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Cartagena that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Alavés than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
29.4%	23.5%	47.1%

Cartagena - Deportivo Alavés Predictions

Users Predictions: 34 users predict this event. Cartagena will win (votes: 10 - 29.4%). Alavés will win (votes: 16 - 47.1%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 23.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Alavés: 30.3% – 63.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

The great teams are gonna meet at this game. The most expected match between two teams from the very top of the group (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ LaLiga2 (Promotion ~ Play Offs) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ LaLiga).

Cartagena has the most likely position - 3 (7.15%), has project points - 63, has currently - 12, has a small chance of relegated (6%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (28%), has a chance of promoted (19%), has a small chance of win league (6%).

Alavés has the most likely position - 1 (14.42%), has project points - 69, has currently - 14, has a very small chance of relegated (2%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (34%), has a chance of promoted (34%), has a small chance of win league (14%).

This event has quality 38, importance 40, match rating 39. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Now both teams are in good shape.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Cartagena
Spanish LaLiga2
16.09.22	Levante - Cartagena	0:1 ✺
10.09.22	Cartagena - Albacete Balompié	2:1 ✺
04.09.22	Burgos - Cartagena	1:0 ✺
26.08.22	Cartagena - Zaragoza	1:0 ✺
21.08.22	Huesca - Cartagena	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.1 WWLWW
- Deportivo Alavés
Spanish LaLiga2
18.09.22	Deportivo Alavés - Huesca	2:1 ✺
10.09.22	Lugo - Deportivo Alavés	1:2 ✺
03.09.22	Deportivo Alavés - Las Palmas	1:1 ✺
28.08.22	Ibiza - Deportivo Alavés	1:1 ✺
19.08.22	Deportivo Alavés - Mirandés	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WWTTW

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