Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 32

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior (Rio Maior)

Referee: Narciso A. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	ZAP
Portugal	Sport TV1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Sport, MEGOGO Ukraine


	Casa Pia		Tondela

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.1	3.3	Watch
	2.3	3.25	3.1
	2.38	3.05	3.05	Watch
	2.39	3.2	3.36
	2.35	2.96	3.45	Watch
	2.3	3	3.1	Watch
	2.37	3.19	3.39	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↓ (2.47)	3.11 ↓ (3.31)	3.25 ↑ (3.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Casa Pia
40.5%

Draw
30.4%

Tondela
29.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.3%

29.3%

31.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.8%

30.5%

32.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Casa Pia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Tondela has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Casa Pia than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tondela than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30%	70%	0%

Casa Pia - Tondela Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Casa Pia will win (votes: 3 - 30%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 70%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sequeira P. (G) 4. Goulart J. 18. Geraldes A. (C) 43. Sousa D. 72. Larrazabal G. 8. Brito R. 24. Mohamed I. 5. Conte A. 29. Livolant J. 90. Cassiano 11. Marques J.	31. Bernardo (G) 48. Manso T. 44. Silva J. 4. Marques C. 27. Conceicao R. 97. Cicero (C) 32. Rodriguez J. 7. Pedro Maranhao 79. Felix H. 90. Aiko M. 16. Rony Lopes
Substitutes
3. Kaly 32. Kiki 10. Livramento D. 95. Mandic I. (G) 99. Mendes C. 21. Morais T. 80. Ofori L. 42. Perez S. 19. Prieto K.	5. Afonso J. 2. Bebeto 10. Hodge J. 23. Kimpioka B. 29. Siebatcheu J. 15. Sithole S. 1. Souza G. (G) 8. Tavares H. 26. van der Heide A.
Coaches
Pacheco A.	Feio G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
49', Livolant J. 🟨,
51', Brito R. 🟨,
55', Cassiano 🟥,
57', Marques J. ↓, Livramento D. ↑,
58', Brito R. ↓, Ofori L. ↑,
63', Cicero ↓, Bebeto ↑,
64', Manso T. ↓, Tavares H. ↑,
65', Geraldes A. 🟨,
68', 0 - 1, Bebeto ⚽,
70', Pedro Maranhao 🟨,
72', Geraldes A. ↓, Morais T. ↑,
75', Marques C. 🟨,
85', Morais T. 🟨,
86', Pedro Maranhao ↓, Sithole S. ↑,
86', Conte A. ↓, Kiki ↑,
86', Larrazabal G. ↓, Prieto K. ↑,
87', Rony Lopes ↓, van der Heide A. ↑,
90', Mohamed I. 🟨,
90+5', Aiko M. ↓, Kimpioka B. ↑,
90+8', Goulart J. 🟨,
90+9', Kimpioka B. 🟨,
90+9', Prieto K. 🟨,
90+11', Livolant J. 🟨,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 16 in the zone Liga Portugal (Relegation) and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2).

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

Casa Pia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Casa Pia could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Casa Pia: Batista R. (Injury) Fonte J. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Casa Pia: Severina X. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Tondela: Huarte X. (Inactive) Tavares H. (Injury) Vita R. (Inactive)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Casa Pia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Outrights of Liga Portugal for now

Casa Pia: 0.13%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
17	Casa Pia	8	1	1	6	3:17	-14	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Casa Pia
Liga Portugal
27.04.26	Gil Vicente - Casa Pia	2:1 ✺
23.04.26	Casa Pia - Braga	0:1 ✺
18.04.26	Casa Pia - Santa Clara	0:0 ✺
12.04.26	Alverca - Casa Pia	3:1 ✺
06.04.26	Casa Pia - Benfica	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 LLTLT
- CD Tondela
Liga Portugal
29.04.26	Sporting Lisbon - Tondela	2:2 ✺
25.04.26	Tondela - Nacional	0:2 ✺
19.04.26	Porto - Tondela	2:0 ✺
13.04.26	Tondela - Gil Vicente	2:2 ✺
03.04.26	Vitoria Guimarães - Tondela	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.9 TLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
21.12.25	Tondela - Casa Pia	1:2

Casa Pia - Tondela: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide