Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 8

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior (Rio Maior)

Referee: Vasilica I. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	ZAP
Usa	beIN Connect


	Casa Pia		Santa Clara

	1	X	2
	3.50	3.20	2.10	Watch
	3.60	3.25	2.05
	4.00	3.35	1.94	Watch
	3.88	3.20	2.19
	3.79	3.23	2.09	Watch
	3.75	3.15	2.16
	3.69	3.28	2.15	Watch
	3.60	3.20	2.09
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.73 ↓ (4.34)	3.23 ↓ (3.29)	2.1 ↑ (1.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Casa Pia
25.4%

Draw
29.3%

Santa Clara
45.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.8%

28.7%

49.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.6%

28.5%

49.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Casa Pia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

Santa Clara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Casa Pia than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santa Clara than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	14.3%	85.7%

Casa Pia - Santa Clara Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Santa Clara (1.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Santa Clara will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Santa Clara (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
95. Mandic I. (G) 18. Geraldes A. (C) 3. Kaly 43. Sousa D. 75. Rosas P. 16. Clua S. 80. Ofori L. 11. Salah M. 70. Rego J. 77. Pauwels B. 9. Araujo H.	1. Lucas Franca (G) 42. Lucas Soares 4. Pacheco P. 21. Fernandes E. 5. Guilherme Romao 8. Tavares J. 6. Ferreira P. 20. Ribeiro T. 70. Vinicius Lopes 9. Paciencia G. (C) 10. Brenner
Substitutes
90. Cassiano 44. Felipe Silva 8. Gabi 4. Goulart J. 20. Jatta A. 98. JP 17. Maurin E. 24. Perez S. 19. Prieto K. 10. Rochinha 1. Sequeira P. (G) 21. Zouin A.	41. Daniel Borges 80. Duarte T. 7. Fernando 73. Leo Jaco 12. Neneca (G) 3. Silva H. 99. Sorriso 17. Vasconcelos 22. Vitinho 11. Welinton Torrao 19. Ythallo
Coaches
Coelho F.	Petit

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
18', Tavares J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
52', Sousa D. 🟥,
55', Araujo H. ↓, Felipe Silva ↑,
57', Tavares J. ↓, Vasconcelos ↑,
67', Araujo H. 🟨,
69', Fernandes E. 🟨,
71', Ribeiro T. ↓, Fernando ↑,
71', Vinicius Lopes ↓, Vitinho ↑,
73', Ofori L. ↓, Gabi ↑,
73', Rosas P. ↓, Goulart J. ↑,
77', Fernandes E. ↓, Silva H. ↑,
77', Brenner ↓, Leo Jaco ↑,
79', Salah M. ↓, Zouin A. ↑,
79', Pauwels B. ↓, Maurin E. ↑,
83', Gabi 🟨,
90+2', 0 - 1, Vasconcelos ⚽, Lucas Soares (A),
90+3', Vasconcelos 🟨,
90+5', Geraldes A. 🟨,
90+8', Ferreira P. 🟨,
90+9', Paciencia G. 🟨,

Preview

A high-stakes clash as a relegation-threatened team welcomes an elite contender (ranked 17th in the Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 and 4th in the Promotion - Europa League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Casa Pia won 1.

Casa Pia is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Santa Clara is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

In this matchup, Santa Clara is considered the favorite to take the win.

In the last 7 head-to-head meetings, Casa Pia has recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 5:7 (averaging 0.7:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Casa Pia against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 2:3 goals (averaging 0.7:1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Santa Clara	8	5	3	0	12:4	8	18
17	Casa Pia	8	1	1	6	3:17	-14	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Casa Pia
Liga Portugal
20.09.26	Estoril Praia - Casa Pia	1:2 ✺
12.09.26	Casa Pia - Porto	1:4 ✺
06.09.26	Vitoria Guimarães - Casa Pia	0:0 ✺
30.08.26	Casa Pia - Moreirense	0:1 ✺
24.08.26	Gil Vicente - Casa Pia	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 WLTLL
- CD Santa Clara
Liga Portugal
20.09.26	Santa Clara - Braga	0:0 ✺
13.09.26	Arouca - Santa Clara	1:2 ✺
06.09.26	Santa Clara - Rio Ave	4:0 ✺
29.08.26	Alverca - Santa Clara	1:1 ✺
23.08.26	Santa Clara - Famalicão	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 TWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
18.04.26	Casa Pia - Santa Clara	0:0
06.12.25	Santa Clara - Casa Pia	1:0
01.02.25	Santa Clara - Casa Pia	2:1
24.08.24	Casa Pia - Santa Clara	0:2
29.01.23	Casa Pia - Santa Clara	2:1
07.08.22	Santa Clara - Casa Pia	0:0
Portuguese League Cup
22.12.19	Santa Clara - Casa Pia	1:2

Casa Pia - Santa Clara: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide