Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 29

Date: 12 April 2026, Sunday

Location: FC Alverca Sports Complex (Alverca do Ribatejo)

Referee: Filipe L. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	ZAP
Brazil	Disney+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Portugal	Sport TV1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine


	Alverca		Casa Pia

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.4	4.2	Watch
	1.92	3.25	4.15	Watch
	1.93	3.4	4.5
	1.89	3.41	4.38	Watch
	1.91	3.1	4	Watch
	1.94	3.45	4.42	Watch
	2.05	3.35	3.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↓ (2.11)	3.34 ↓ (3.44)	4.19 ↑ (3.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alverca
49.1%

Draw
28.3%

Casa Pia
22.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46%

28.2%

25.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46%

28.2%

25.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alverca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

Casa Pia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alverca than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Casa Pia than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	40%	0%

Alverca - Casa Pia Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Alverca will win (votes: 3 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Alverca (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Matheus Mendes (G) 4. Naves 5. Gomez S. (C) 33. Meupiyou B. 2. Touaizi N. 26. Rhaldney 18. Lincoln 12. James I. 20. Figueiredo 91. Sandro Lima 10. Chiquinho	1. Sequeira P. (G) 4. Goulart J. 3. Kaly 43. Sousa D. 72. Larrazabal G. 42. Perez S. 8. Brito R. 75. Rosas P. 29. Livolant J. 90. Cassiano (C) 11. Marques J.
Substitutes
14. Baseya S. 19. Clairicia M. 6. Gui D. 35. Kassary Z. 9. Marezi 1. Mateus Oliveira (G) 17. Moreira V. 11. Nuozzi C. 82. Spencer D.	18. Geraldes A. 27. Kaique Rocha 10. Livramento D. 95. Mandic I. (G) 99. Mendes C. 24. Mohamed I. 21. Morais T. 80. Ofori L. 19. Prieto K.
Coaches
Custodio	Pacheco A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
1', 0 - 1, Marques J. ⚽, Livolant J. (A),
2nd Half (3 - 0)
49', 1 - 1, Figueiredo ⚽, Chiquinho (A),
58', Cassiano ↓, Mendes C. ↑,
63', 2 - 1, Chiquinho ⚽,
68', Livolant J. ↓, Livramento D. ↑,
69', Perez S. ↓, Mohamed I. ↑,
69', Marques J. ↓, Ofori L. ↑,
75', Sandro Lima ↓, Marezi ↑,
82', Sousa D. ↓, Geraldes A. ↑,
83', 3 - 1, Rhaldney ⚽, Marezi (A),
87', Figueiredo ↓, Moreira V. ↑,
87', Rhaldney ↓, Nuozzi C. ↑,
90+3', Lincoln ↓, Gui D. ↑,
90+3', Chiquinho ↓, Kassary Z. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 10 and 16 in the zone Liga Portugal (Relegation)).

Alverca has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Casa Pia has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Casa Pia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Alverca is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Alverca: Abdulai S. (Injury) Mendes T. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Casa Pia: Batista R. (Injury) Kiki (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Alverca: Chissumba (Injury) Diarra S. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Casa Pia: Brito R. (Injury) Ofori L. (Injury) Severina X. (Inactive)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Alverca won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	9:11	-2	8
17	Casa Pia	8	1	1	6	3:17	-14	4

Last Results with these Odds

Casa Pia - the odds 3.76 are the expected chance of winning is 25.81%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Alverca
Liga Portugal
04.04.26	Rio Ave - Alverca	1:2 ✺
22.03.26	Alverca - Sporting Lisbon	1:4 ✺
14.03.26	Gil Vicente - Alverca	2:2 ✺
07.03.26	Alverca - AVS	0:0 ✺
28.02.26	Vitoria Guimarães - Alverca	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 WLTTT
- Casa Pia
Liga Portugal
06.04.26	Casa Pia - Benfica	1:1 ✺
20.03.26	Estrela da Amadora - Casa Pia	4:0 ✺
07.03.26	Estoril Praia - Casa Pia	0:0 ✺
01.03.26	Casa Pia - Moreirense	1:1 ✺
23.02.26	Famalicão - Casa Pia	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.8 TLTTL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
29.11.25	Casa Pia - Alverca	0:2

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