Match Info

ITALY: Serie D - Group H - Round 28

Date: 23 March 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadio Giuseppe Capozza (Casarano)


	Casarano		Nardo

	1	X	2
	1.32	4.5	8.4
	1.36	4	7.5
	1.3	4.6	9.15
	1.32	4.5	8.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.33 ↓ (1.55)	4.4 ↑ (3.6)	8.36 ↑ (5.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Casarano
68.5%

Draw
20.6%

Nardo
10.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.5%

25.2%

16.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.7%

24.3%

15.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Casarano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Casarano's performance.

Nardo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Nardo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Casarano than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Casarano that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nardo than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

Casarano - Nardo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Guastamacchia A. ⚽,
29', 2 - 0, Ferrara V. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

During this match we will see a game between leader and a team of mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion and 8).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Casarano won 2.

Casarano is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Nardo is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Casarano is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Casarano to win the game is with odds 1.55.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Casarano won 5 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 10:10 (average 0.9:0.9).

Including matches at home between the teams Casarano won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6:4 (average 1.2:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Casarano Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group H
09.03.25	Angri - Casarano	0:4 ✺
02.03.25	Casarano - Nocerina	1:1 ✺
23.02.25	Virtus Francavilla - Casarano	2:2 ✺
16.02.25	Casarano - Matera	5:0 ✺
09.02.25	Città di Brindisi - Casarano	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WTTWW
- ACD Nardo
Italian Serie D - Group H
09.03.25	Nardo - Ischia Isolaverde	0:0 ✺
23.02.25	Nardo - Manfredonia	0:1 ✺
16.02.25	Fidelis Andria - Nardo	1:0 ✺
09.02.25	Nardo - Costa D`Amalfi	1:0 ✺
02.02.25	Francavilla - Nardo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 TLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group H
10.11.24	Nardo - Casarano	1:1
04.02.24	Nardo - Casarano	0:1
08.10.23	Casarano - Nardo	2:1
06.04.23	Nardo - Casarano	2:0
27.11.22	Casarano - Nardo	0:0
06.04.22	Casarano - Nardo	1:2
03.10.21	Nardo - Casarano	0:1

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