Match Info

Serie D - Group B - Round 32

Date: 19 April 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished


	Casatese		Pavia

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.3	3.95
	1.82	3.27	3.89
	1.9	3.26	3.85	Watch
	1.82	3.16	4.24
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↓ (1.87)	3.25 ↑ (3.23)	3.98 ↑ (3.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Casatese
49.4%

Draw
27.9%

Pavia
22.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

48.8%

28.2%

23%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48%

27.7%

23.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Casatese has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Pavia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Casatese than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pavia than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Casatese - Pavia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D ~ Group B (Play Offs: ) and 15 in the zone Serie D ~ Group B (Play Out: )).

Casatese has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Pavia is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Casatese may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Casatese is a strong favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Casatese won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- USD Casatese
Italian Serie D - Group B
11.04.26	Vogherese - Casatese	0:4 ✺
02.04.26	Casatese - Castellanzese	1:0 ✺
29.03.26	Villa Valle - Casatese	0:1 ✺
22.03.26	Casatese - Varesina	0:1 ✺
15.03.26	Sondrio - Casatese	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WWWLL
- Pavia Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group B
12.04.26	Pavia - Scanzorosciate	1:0 ✺
02.04.26	Leon - Pavia	3:1 ✺
28.03.26	Vogherese - Pavia	0:2 ✺
22.03.26	Pavia - Castellanzese	1:0 ✺
15.03.26	Villa Valle - Pavia	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 WLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group B
07.12.25	Pavia - Casatese	3:3

Casatese - Pavia