Match Info
Tercera RFEF - Group 3 - Round 30Date: 12 April 2026, Sunday
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 |
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Castro |
|
Guarnizo |
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1 |
X |
2 |
|
 |
2.88 |
3.15 |
2.25 |
|
 |
2.93 |
3.24 |
2.27 |
|
 |
3.19 |
3.03 |
2.29 |
 Watch |
 |
2.9 |
3 |
2.3 |
|
 |
2.96 |
3.1 |
2.27 |
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Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.97 ↑
(2.87) |
3.1 ↓
(3.16) |
2.28 ↓
(2.31) |
|
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
- The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Castro
30.6% | Draw
29.3% | Guarnizo
40% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Castro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)Guarnizo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Castro than the current prediction. (+1.2%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guarnizo than the current prediction. (-0.7%)Castro - Guarnizo Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1 
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 13', 0 - 1, ⚽,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
Preview
A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 11 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 3 (Play Offs: )).In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Castro won 2.Castro has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).Guarnizo is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).Guarnizo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times. The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Castro won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:10. (average 0.8:1.1).Including home matches between the teams, Castro won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1:0.7).
Standings
| | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
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| 11 | Castro | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4:6 | -2 | 5 |
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| 13 | Guarnizo | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6:9 | -3 | 4 |
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Last Results with these Odds
Guarnizo - the odds 2.31 are the expected chance of winning is 39.44%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 3 | | | 06.12.25 | Guarnizo - Castro | 2:0 | | 29.09.24 | Guarnizo - Castro | 0:2 | | 09.03.24 | Guarnizo - Castro | 0:0 | | 22.10.23 | Castro - Guarnizo | 3:2 | | 26.02.23 | Guarnizo - Castro | 4:1 | | 23.10.22 | Castro - Guarnizo | 0:0 | | 26.02.22 | Castro - Guarnizo | 0:0 |
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