Match Info
Tercera RFEF - Group 3 - Play Offs - Semi-finalsDate: 17 May 2026, Sunday
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Guarnizo |
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Tropezón |
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1 |
X |
2 |
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2.25 |
2.95 |
2.95 |
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2.72 |
2.78 |
2.62 |
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 |
3.09 |
2.49 |
2.73 |
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2.67 |
2.6 |
3.06 |
 Watch |
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2.8 |
2.63 |
2.63 |
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2.81 |
2.98 |
2.65 |
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Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.72 ↓
(3.45) |
2.74 ↓
(3.1) |
2.77 ↑
(2) |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
- The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Guarnizo
33.6% | Draw
33.4% | Tropezón
33% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Guarnizo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Guarnizo's performance.Tropezón has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.9%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Tropezón might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guarnizo than the current prediction. (-8.5%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Guarnizo that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tropezón than the current prediction. (+13.7%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tropezón could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.Guarnizo - Tropezón Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1 
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
Preview
First leg.In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Guarnizo won 2.Guarnizo has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).Tropezón is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).Tropezón may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days. The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Guarnizo won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 13:17. (average 1:1.3).Including home matches between the teams, Guarnizo won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:5. (average 0.8:0.8).
Standings
| | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Tropezon | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11:2 | 9 | 15 |
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| 13 | Guarnizo | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6:9 | -3 | 4 |
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Last Results with these Odds
Tropezón - the odds 2 are the expected chance of winning is 44.95%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 3 | | | 07.03.26 | Guarnizo - Tropezón | 1:0 | | 25.10.25 | Tropezón - Guarnizo | 0:3 | | 27.04.25 | Guarnizo - Tropezón | 1:1 | | 15.12.24 | Tropezón - Guarnizo | 2:0 | | 28.01.24 | Tropezón - Guarnizo | 0:0 | | 09.09.23 | Guarnizo - Tropezón | 1:0 | | 11.03.23 | Guarnizo - Tropezón | 1:2 |
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