Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 5

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Leonidas Sodre de Castro (Curuzu) (Belem)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet+, Zapping


	Paysandu		Botafogo PB

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.72	3.2	4.45	Watch
	1.78	3.4	5.03
	1.95	3.17	4.14	Watch
	1.7	3.2	4.4
	1.78	3.56	4.4	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↓ (1.86)	3.31 ↑ (3.14)	4.48 ↓ (4.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paysandu
51.6%

Draw
27.9%

Botafogo PB
20.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.9%

29.6%

20.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.3%

28.8%

19.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paysandu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

The chances for Botafogo PB have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paysandu than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Botafogo PB than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Paysandu - Botafogo PB Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Gabriel Mesquita (G) 31. Bonifazi F. 23. Brian Macapa 8. Caio Mello 2. Edilson 9. Italo Carvalho 75. Kleiton Pego 4. larley Brito 10. Marcinho (C) 3. Quintana Y. 30. Thalyson	23. Max Walef (G) 77. Bastos R. 16. Bull 22. Dudu Nardini 11. Felipe Azevedo 18. Giovanni 9. Henrique Dourado 5. Jhonata Varela 33. Julio Vaz 4. Saimon 20. Thallyson
Substitutes
5. Henrico 17. Henrique Salomoni 1. Jean Drosny (G) 57. JP Galvao 98. Juninho 94. Kaua Hinkel 26. Libonati 99. Lucas Cardoso 6. Luccao 77. Luciano Taboca 19. Thayllon 25. Tiago Indio	29. Anderson Chaves 25. Caio Garcia 2. Diogo Mateus 37. Ed Carlos 88. Gabriel Tota 31. Gustavo 8. Igor Maduro 39. Lawan 17. Lucas Sena 27. Luiz Daniel (G) 35. Octavio

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 2)
3', 0 - 1, Bastos R. ⚽,
17', 0 - 2, Giovanni ⚽,
23', 1 - 2, Kleiton Pego ⚽,
27', 2 - 2, Thallyson (Own goal),
37', Julio Vaz ↓, Octavio ↑,
45+1', Thallyson 🟨,
45+4', 3 - 2, Italo Carvalho ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Thallyson ↓, Igor Maduro ↑,
50', larley Brito 🟨,
61', Bull ↓, Gustavo ↑,
63', 🟨,
68', larley Brito ↓, Luccao ↑,
68', Brian Macapa ↓, Tiago Indio ↑,
71', Kleiton Pego ↓, Thayllon ↑,
78', Marcinho ↓, Henrico ↑,
78', Thalyson ↓, Lucas Cardoso ↑,
84', 🟨,
90', 4 - 2, Thayllon ⚽,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: ) and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Paysandu won 3.

Paysandu is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Botafogo PB has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Botafogo PB may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Paysandu is a strong favorite.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Paysandu won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 12:12. (average 1.1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Paysandu won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 0.8:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paysandu PA
Brazilian Copa Norte
29.04.26	Trem - Paysandu	0:3 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
25.04.26	Itabaiana - Paysandu	1:4 ✺
Copa do Brasil
21.04.26	Paysandu - Vasco da Gama	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
18.04.26	Paysandu - Barra Santa Catarina	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Norte
15.04.26	Paysandu - Independência	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WWLTW
- Botafogo PB
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
29.04.26	Botafogo PB - Fluminense Piaui	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
25.04.26	Botafogo PB - Floresta	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
22.04.26	Itabaiana - Botafogo PB	3:3 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
19.04.26	Figueirense - Botafogo PB	2:1 ✺
11.04.26	Ferroviária - Botafogo PB	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 TLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
23.09.23	Botafogo PB - Paysandu	2:3
17.09.23	Paysandu - Botafogo PB	1:0
27.06.23	Botafogo PB - Paysandu	3:2
12.06.22	Paysandu - Botafogo PB	2:1
31.10.21	Botafogo PB - Paysandu	1:0
11.10.21	Paysandu - Botafogo PB	0:0
08.08.21	Botafogo PB - Paysandu	2:1

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