Match Info

Primera C - Qualification - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Jorge Alfredo Arin (Buenos Aires)


	Cañuelas		Lugano

	1	X	2
	1.87	2.98	4.21
	1.97	3	4.31
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.92 ↑ (1.86)	2.99 ↑ (2.94)	4.26 ↑ (4.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cañuelas
47.8%

Draw
30.7%

Lugano
21.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48%

30.4%

21.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.1%

28.6%

20.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cañuelas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Lugano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cañuelas than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lugano than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Cañuelas - Lugano Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
11', 1 - 0, Heidenreich J. ⚽,
26', 1 - 1, Galvan D. (Pen),
40', 2 - 1, Heidenreich J. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
90+2', 3 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

1st leg result: 2-0. 2nd leg.

Cañuelas is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Lugano is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Cañuelas is considered a favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Cañuelas won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cañuelas FC
Argentinian Primera C
27.09.25	Lugano - Cañuelas	0:2 ✺
15.09.25	Cañuelas - Argentino de Rosario	4:0 ✺
09.09.25	Deportivo Camioneros - Cañuelas	4:1 ✺
30.08.25	Cañuelas - Deportivo Yupanqui	0:0 ✺
23.08.25	Juventud Unida de San Miguel - Cañuelas	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.8 WWLTW
- CA Lugano
Argentinian Primera C
27.09.25	Lugano - Cañuelas	0:2 ✺
16.09.25	Lugano - Justo José de Urquiza	2:2 ✺
05.09.25	El Porvenir - Lugano	2:1 ✺
30.08.25	Lugano - Defensores de Cambaceres	2:2 ✺
24.08.25	Leandro N. Alem - Lugano	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LTLTT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera C
27.09.25	Lugano - Cañuelas	0:2

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