Match Info

Serie B - Round 12

Date: 10 June 2026, Wednesday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Referee: Pinheiro J. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+, ESPN


	Ceará		Avaí

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.10	4.50	Watch
	1.87	3.10	4.20
	1.76	3.45	4.70	Watch
	1.94	3.32	4.66
	1.86	3.34	4.4	Watch
	1.85	3.00	4.40
	1.87	3.10	4.73	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↑ (1.64)	3.2 ↓ (3.63)	4.51 ↓ (5.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ceará
50.2%

Draw
29.1%

Avaí
20.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.6%

25.6%

17.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.8%

24.6%

17.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceará has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ceará's form might have worsened.

Avaí has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (+8.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ceará, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Avaí than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Ceará - Avaí Predictions

Users Predictions: Ceará will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Richard (C) 2. Ramos R. 33. Eder 4. Luiz Otavio 17. Fernando 81. Joao Gabriel 18. Julio Cesar 40. Melk 8. Matheus Araujo 20. Diego 9. Wendel Silva	41. Leo Aragao (G) 2. Wallison 15. Guilherme Aquino 50. Joao Maistro 36. DG (C) 25. Paulo Vitor 8. Luiz Henrique 43. Thayllon 14. Daniel Penha 10. Jean Lucas 57. Walace Franca
Substitutes
60. Enzo Lodovico 83. Gabriel Amaral 63. Gilmar 35. Giulio 41. Gustavo Martins (G) 30. Gustavo Prado 10. Juan Alano 13. Luiz Otavio 98. Matheusinho 80. Pedro Esli 26. Richardson 12. Sanchez	4. Gabriel Simples 18. Hyan 9. Leo Gamalho 21. Otavio Passos (G) 66. Quaresma 5. Romildo Del Piage 11. Sorriso 95. Wenderson 52. Wesley Gasolina
Coaches
Mozart	Cauan de Almeida

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
5', Eder 🟨,
19', 1 - 0, Julio Cesar ⚽, Melk (A),
26', Luiz Otavio 🟨,
38', Walace Franca 🟨,
45+1', 2 - 0, Melk ⚽, Ramos R. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
48', Matheus Araujo 🟨,
57', Thayllon ↓, Sorriso ↑,
57', Wallison ↓, Wesley Gasolina ↑,
60', 2 - 1, Sorriso ⚽, Jean Lucas (A),
62', Wendel Silva ↓, Gabriel Amaral ↑,
67', DG 🟨,
70', Fernando ↓, Sanchez ↑,
70', Diego ↓, Richardson ↑,
70', Matheus Araujo ↓, Gustavo Prado ↑,
78', DG ↓, Wenderson ↑,
78', Walace Franca ↓, Leo Gamalho ↑,
78', Ramos R. ↓, Enzo Lodovico ↑,
82', Guilherme Aquino ↓, Gabriel Simples ↑,
88', Melk ↓, Matheusinho ↑,
90', Paulo Vitor 🟨,
90+3', Paulo Vitor ↓, Romildo Del Piage ↑,

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 15 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ))

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ceará won 2.

Recent form of Ceará has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Avaí has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Avaí may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, the opponents have had a series of home games.

In this match, Ceará is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Ceará: Alex Silva (Inactive) Fernandinho (Red Card) Lucas Lima (Red Card) Lucca (Shoulder Injury) Vinicius Zanocelo (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Avaí: Allyson (Inactive) Jefferson Maciel (Injury)

There are questionable in Ceará: Pedro Henrique (Inactive) Ronald Carvalho (Muscle Injury) Vina (Inactive)

There are questionable in Avaí: Bruno Baldini (Inactive) Isaias (Injury) Pedro Cuiaba (Inactive)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Ceará won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 15:14. (average 0.9:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Ceará won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:4. (average 1:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Ceara	31	10	9	12	34:39	-5	39
17	Avai	32	9	6	17	32:43	-11	33

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ceará SC
Brazilian Serie B
31.05.26	Ceará - Operário Ferroviario	1:2 ✺
23.05.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Ceará	2:1 ✺
17.05.26	Ceará - Fortaleza	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
13.05.26	Ceará - Atlético Mineiro	2:2 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie B
09.05.26	Ceará - Atlético Goianiense	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLWLL
- Avaí
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
07.06.26	Chapecoense - Avaí	3:1 penalties ✺
03.06.26	Avaí - Chapecoense	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
30.05.26	Avaí - Criciúma	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
27.05.26	Avaí - Volta Redonda	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
24.05.26	Avaí - Goiás	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
03.11.24	Ceará - Avaí	2:0
19.07.24	Avaí - Ceará	0:1
22.10.23	Avaí - Ceará	1:0
28.06.23	Ceará - Avaí	0:0
Brazilian Serie A
09.11.22	Avaí - Ceará	2:0
19.07.22	Ceará - Avaí	1:0
13.10.19	Ceará - Avaí	1:0

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