Match Info

Copa Betano do Brasil - 1/16-finals

Date: 13 May 2026, Wednesday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Referee: Delgado M. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Ceará		Atlético Mineiro

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.1	2.55
	2.6	3.1	2.45
	2.78	2.98	2.62	Watch
	2.79	3.15	2.63
	2.83	2.96	2.63	Watch
	2.75	3	2.5
	2.7	3.2	2.52	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.74 ↓ (2.8)	3.07 ↓ (3.11)	2.56 ↑ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ceará
33.7%

Draw
30.1%

Atlético Mineiro
36.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.1%

29.8%

37.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.7%

29.4%

37.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceará has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Atlético Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	66.7%	33.3%

Ceará - Atlético Mineiro Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Atlético MG will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
94. Bruno Ferreira (G) 33. Eder (C) 18. Julio Cesar 4. Luiz Otavio 21. Alex Silva 81. Joao Gabriel 20. Diego 17. Fernando 40. Melk 11. Fernandinho 30. Gustavo Prado	22. Everson (C) 13. Lyanco 3. Roman I. 14. Vitor Hugo 39. Cisse M. 21. Franco A. 25. Perez T. 16. Lodi R. 27. Minda A. 19. Reinier 9. Cassierra M.
Substitutes
60. Enzo Lodovico 63. Gilmar 35. Giulio 41. Gustavo Martins (G) 10. Juan Alano 31. Lucas Lima 8. Matheus Araujo 80. Pedro Esli 7. Pedro Henrique 2. Ramos R. 26. Richardson 12. Sanchez	5. Alexsander 6. Alonso J. 29. Caua 28. Cuello 92. Dudu 1. Gabriel Delfim (G) 17. Igor Gomes 8. Maycon 2. Natanael 36. Pascini K. 23. Preciado A. 40. Vitao
Coaches
Mozart	Dominguez E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
4', Cisse M. 🟥,
8', 1 - 0, Alex Silva (Penalty Awarded),
17', Lodi R. 🟨,
23', 2 - 0, Everson (Own goal),
33', Reinier ↓, Cuello ↑,
33', Roman I. ↓, Natanael ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Minda A. ↓, Alexsander ↑,
46', Alex Silva ↓, Ramos R. ↑,
46', Lodi R. ↓, Pascini K. ↑,
55', Lyanco 🟨,
70', Gustavo Prado ↓, Enzo Lodovico ↑,
70', Melk ↓, Juan Alano ↑,
75', Fernandinho ↓, Giulio ↑,
75', Diego ↓, Matheus Araujo ↑,
78', Perez T. ↓, Caua ↑,
90', 2 - 1, Pascini K. ⚽, Cassierra M. (A),
90+4', Alexsander 🟨,
Penalties (2 - 4)
1, Cassierra M. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Juan Alano (Penalty Awarded),
2, Alexsander (Penalty Awarded),
2, Fernando (Penalty Awarded),
3, Cuello (Penalty Awarded),
3, Eder (Penalty Awarded),
4, Lyanco (Penalty Awarded),
4, Ramos R. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Everson (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

First leg result: 1-2.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ceará won 0.

Recent form of Ceará has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Atlético MG has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Ceará may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Ceará won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 11:19. (average 0.8:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Ceará won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:7. (average 1.2:1.2).

Last Results with these Odds

Ceará - the odds 2.8 are the expected chance of winning is 33.09%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ceará SC
Brazilian Serie B
09.05.26	Ceará - Atlético Goianiense	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
06.05.26	Vitória Salvador - Ceará	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
03.05.26	Sport Recife - Ceará	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
29.04.26	Maranhão - Ceará	1:3 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
26.04.26	Ceará - Vila Nova	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLLWT
- Atlético Mineiro
Brazilian Serie A
10.05.26	Atlético Mineiro - Botafogo RJ	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
05.05.26	Juventud de Las Piedras - Atlético Mineiro	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
02.05.26	Cruzeiro - Atlético Mineiro	1:3 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
29.04.26	Cienciano - Atlético Mineiro	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
26.04.26	Atlético Mineiro - Flamengo	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 TTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Copa do Brasil
23.04.26	Atlético Mineiro - Ceará	2:1
Brazilian Serie A
25.10.25	Atlético Mineiro - Ceará	1:0
01.06.25	Ceará - Atlético Mineiro	0:1
09.10.22	Atlético Mineiro - Ceará	0:0
15.06.22	Ceará - Atlético Mineiro	0:0
09.10.21	Atlético Mineiro - Ceará	3:1
24.06.21	Ceará - Atlético Mineiro	2:1

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