Match Info

BRAZIL: CEARENSE - PLAY OFFS - SEMI-FINALS

Date: 16 March 2024, Saturday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)


	Ceará		Ferroviário Fortaleza

	1	X	2
	1.58	3.6	4.8
	1.69	3.32	3.63
	1.69	3.32	3.63
	1.69	3.74	4.59
	1.71	3.7	4.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↑ (1.34)	3.54 ↓ (4.75)	4.15 ↓ (6.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ceará
53.3%

Draw
25.2%

Ferroviário Fortaleza
21.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.6%

19.1%

13.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.1%

19.2%

13.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceará has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ceará's form might have worsened.

Ferroviário Fortaleza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ferroviário Fortaleza's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (+14.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ceará, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferroviário Fortaleza than the current prediction. (-8.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ferroviário Fortaleza, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Richard (G) 11. Aylon (C) 31. Barcelo F. 16. Erick Pulga 99. Guilherme Castilho 97. Lourenco 79. Matheus Bahia 42. Matheus Felipe 2. Rai Ramos 40. Ramon Menezes 26. Richardson	1. Douglas Dias (G) 99. Ciel (C) 6. Ernandes 11. Gabryel Martins 15. Geninho 5. Lincoln 22. Vinicius Alves 21. Vitinho 13. Wesley 17. Wilker 26. Willian Rocha
Substitutes
27. Bruninho 94. Bruno Ferreira (G) 82. Caio Rafael 4. David Ricardo 77. Janderson 5. Jean Irmer 55. Jonathan Jesus 10. Lucas Mugni 21. Paulo Victor 6. Ramos R. 28. Recalde J. 73. Saulo Mineiro	25. Bryan G. F. 18. Cesar Sampaio 32. Geaze (G) 3. Henrique Vermudt 29. Hugo (G) 23. Igor Dutra 24. Joelson 9. Marcelinho 14. Matheus Mega 19. Rafael Chorao 8. Ralph 10. Tarcisio

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 3-2.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ceará won 2.

Two teams are playing changeable.

Ceará could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Ceará is absolute favorite.

Last 14 head-to-head matches Ceará won 8 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 24-12.

Including matches at home between the teams Ceará won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ceará SC
Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
09.03.24	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Ceará	2:3 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
06.03.24	Ceará - Bahia	1:2 ✺
28.02.24	Ceará - ABC	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
17.02.24	Fortaleza - Ceará	3:3 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
14.02.24	Náutico Capibaribe - Ceará	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WLTTT
- Ferroviário Fortaleza
Copa do Brasil
13.03.24	Sampaio Corrêa - Ferroviário Fortaleza	1:0 penalties ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
09.03.24	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Ceará	2:3 ✺
02.03.24	Iguatu - Ferroviário Fortaleza	1:3 ✺
Copa do Brasil
28.02.24	Maranhão - Ferroviário Fortaleza	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
24.02.24	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Iguatu	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
09.03.24	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Ceará	2:3
31.01.23	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Ceará	1:1
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
22.01.23	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Ceará	3:0
Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
19.05.21	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Ceará	0:3
10.03.21	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Ceará	2:1
19.07.20	Ceará - Ferroviário Fortaleza	1:0
29.01.20	Ceará - Ferroviário Fortaleza	1:1

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