Match Info

BRAZIL: Brasiliense - Round 9

Date: 8 March 2025, Saturday


	Ceilândia		Samambaia

	1	X	2
	1.39	4.1	6.5
	1.65	3.75	4.4
	1.58	4.01	4.29
	1.63	4.1	4.34	Watch
	1.54	3.96	5.06
	1.65	3.75	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↑ (1.4)	3.95 ↓ (4.1)	4.83 ↓ (7.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ceilândia
58%

Draw
23.1%

Samambaia
18.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.4%

22.3%

12.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68%

21.4%

11.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceilândia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ceilândia's form might have worsened.

Samambaia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Samambaia's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ceilândia than the current prediction. (+10%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ceilândia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Samambaia than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Samambaia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Ceilândia - Samambaia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
35', 0 - 1, Lila G. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
72', 1 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

One of which is a team leader another one is from mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Brasiliense (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 6).

Ceilândia is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Samambaia is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Samambaia could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Ceilândia is certain favorite.

Our prediction for today's Ceilândia to win the game is with odds 1.39.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Ceilândia won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 16:6 (average 4:1.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Ceilândia won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 13:3 (average 6.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ceilândia
Copa do Brasil
27.02.25	Ceilândia - Coritiba	3:2 penalties ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Brasiliense
23.02.25	Capital CF Ltda - Ceilândia	4:1 ✺
17.02.25	Ceilândia - Gama	2:0 ✺
13.02.25	Legião - Ceilândia	1:2 ✺
08.02.25	Paranoá - Ceilândia	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.5 WLWWW
- Samambaia FC
Brazilian Campeonato Brasiliense
22.02.25	Samambaia - Ceilandense	0:1 ✺
17.02.25	Real Brasilia - Samambaia	1:1 ✺
12.02.25	Samambaia - Sobradinho	1:0 ✺
08.02.25	Samambaia - Gama	0:1 ✺
02.02.25	Legião - Samambaia	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Brasiliense
24.02.24	Samambaia - Ceilândia	0:3
26.02.23	Samambaia - Ceilândia	3:0
10.04.21	Ceilândia - Samambaia	8:1
14.03.18	Ceilândia - Samambaia	5:2

Ceilândia - Samambaia: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide