Match Info

Brasiliense - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 15 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Venue Estadio Elmo Serejo Farias (Serejao) (Taguatinga)


	Samambaia		Sobradinho

	1	X	2
	1.98	2.98	3.65
	2.02	2.97	3.66
	2.02	3.04	3.72	Watch
	2.05	2.9	3.5
	2.06	3.06	3.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↑ (1.81)	2.99 ↓ (3.28)	3.69 ↓ (4.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Samambaia
44.9%

Draw
30.4%

Sobradinho
24.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.7%

27.9%

21.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.8%

25.8%

19.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Samambaia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Samambaia's form might have worsened.

Sobradinho has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Samambaia than the current prediction. (+9.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Samambaia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sobradinho than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

Samambaia - Sobradinho Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
64', 0 - 1, ⚽,
90', 🟥,

Preview

First leg result: 0-0. Second leg.

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Brasiliense (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Brasiliense (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Samambaia is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Sobradinho has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Samambaia is considered a favorite.

We predict that Samambaia will win today's game, with odds of 1.77.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Samambaia won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1. (average 1.3:0.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Samambaia won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0. (average 2:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Samambaia FC
Brazilian Campeonato Brasiliense
08.03.26	Sobradinho - Samambaia	0:0 ✺
28.02.26	Paranoá - Samambaia	0:6 ✺
22.02.26	Samambaia - Sobradinho	3:0 ✺
12.02.26	ARUC - Samambaia	0:3 ✺
07.02.26	Samambaia - Brasília	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 TWWWW
- Sobradinho EC
Brazilian Campeonato Brasiliense
08.03.26	Sobradinho - Samambaia	0:0 ✺
28.02.26	Sobradinho - Brasília	1:0 ✺
22.02.26	Samambaia - Sobradinho	3:0 ✺
11.02.26	Real Brasilia - Sobradinho	0:3 ✺
07.02.26	Sobradinho - Gama	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 TWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Brasiliense
08.03.26	Sobradinho - Samambaia	0:0
22.02.26	Samambaia - Sobradinho	3:0
12.02.25	Samambaia - Sobradinho	1:0
31.01.18	Sobradinho - Samambaia	1:1

Samambaia - Sobradinho: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide