Match Info

SPAIN: LALIGA - ROUND 15

Date: 4 December 2023, Monday

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Argentina	DirecTV
Australia	Optus Sport
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Croatia	Arena Sport
Cyprus	PrimeTel
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3
Finland	MTV Urheilu
France	beIN Sports Max
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 2
Portugal	Eleven Sports
Sweden	CMore Live
United-kingdom	Viaplay


	Celta de Vigo		Cádiz

	1	X	2
	1.5	4	7.5	Watch
	1.53	4.1	6.5
	1.52	4.33	6.5	Watch
	1.52	4.34	6.91
	1.52	4.35	6.91
	1.5	4	6.5
	1.51	4.3	6.7	Watch
	1.5	4.3	7.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.51 ↓ (1.72)	4.22 ↑ (3.75)	6.84 ↑ (4.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Celta de Vigo
63.3%

Draw
22.7%

Cádiz
14%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.1%

25.3%

19.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.5%

26%

19.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Celta de Vigo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Celta de Vigo's performance.

Cádiz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Cádiz might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Celta de Vigo than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Celta de Vigo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cádiz than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Cádiz could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.2%	7.5%	11.2%

Celta de Vigo - Cádiz Predictions

Users Predictions: Celta de Vigo will win (65 of 80 users predict this - 81.25%).
Confidence interval (95%): 72.7% – 89.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Guaita V. (G) 20. Vazquez K. 2. Starfelt C. 4. Nunez U. 23. Sanchez M. 3. Mingueza O. 5. Tapia R. 14. de la Torre L. 17. Bamba J. 18. Larsen J. S. 10. Aspas I. (C)	13. Gil D. (G) 20. Carcelen I. (C) 3. Fali 5. Chust V. 15. Hernandez J. 11. Alejo I. 4. Alcaraz R. 8. Fernandez A. 7. Sobrino R. 16. Ramos C. 21. Marti R.
Substitutes
8. Beltran F. 11. Cervi F. 28. Dominguez C. 6. Dotor C. 12. Douvikas A. 1. Marchesin A. (G) 7. Perez C. 21. Ristic M. 29. Rodriguez M. 30. Sotelo H. 19. Swedberg W. 13. Villar I. (G)	26. Aznar Ussen V. (G) 28. Diakite M. 25. Gomez M. 19. Guardiola S. 6. Jose Mari 33. Lucas Pires 18. Machis D. 14. Mbaye M. 22. Mere J. 27. Navarro R. 9. Negredo A. 2. Zaldua J.
Coaches
Benitez R.	Sergio

Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ LaLiga2 and 17).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Celta won 1.

Two teams are playing changeable.

Cádiz could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently opponents have a series of guest games.

In this match Celta is indisputable favorite.

There will not play in Celta: Aidoo J. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There will not play in Cádiz: Escalante G. (Injury) Hernandez L. (Knee Injury) Kouame R. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Cádiz: Carcelen I. (Injury) Ledesma C. (Muscle Injury) San Emeterio F. (Knee Injury)

Last 8 head-to-head matches Celta won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 13-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Celta won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 10-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Celta de Vigo
Spanish LaLiga
25.11.23	Valencia - Celta de Vigo	0:0 ✺
10.11.23	Athletic Bilbao - Celta de Vigo	4:3 ✺
04.11.23	Celta de Vigo - Sevilla	1:1 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
01.11.23	Turégano - Celta de Vigo	0:4 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
27.10.23	Girona - Celta de Vigo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 TLTWL
- Cádiz CF
Spanish LaLiga
29.11.23	Mallorca - Cádiz	1:1 ✺
26.11.23	Cádiz - Real Madrid	0:3 ✺
Club Friendly
16.11.23	Atlético Sanluqueño - Cádiz	0:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
06.11.23	Getafe - Cádiz	1:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
01.11.23	Badalona Futur - Cádiz	0:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 TLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
28.05.23	Cádiz - Celta de Vigo	1:0
02.09.22	Celta de Vigo - Cádiz	3:0
12.02.22	Cádiz - Celta de Vigo	0:0
17.09.21	Celta de Vigo - Cádiz	1:2
18.04.21	Cádiz - Celta de Vigo	0:0
14.12.20	Celta de Vigo - Cádiz	4:0
Spanish Copa del Rey
13.01.16	Celta de Vigo - Cádiz	2:0

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