Match Info

Segunda Division - Round 19

Date: 20 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Charrúa (Montevideo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Cerrito		River Plate Montevideo

	1	X	2
	2.30	2.95	2.87
	2.43	3.00	2.70
	2.42	3.00	3.03
	2.85	3.07	2.55	Watch
	2.35	2.95	3.00
	2.34	3.29	2.97
	2.29	3.00	2.90
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.43 (2.43)	3.04 ↑ (3)	2.86 ↑ (2.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cerrito
37.8%

Draw
30.2%

River Plate Montevideo
32%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.7%

29.7%

33.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.7%

28.2%

31.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cerrito has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

River Plate Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerrito than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for River Plate Montevideo than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Cerrito - River Plate Montevideo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
15', 0 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
66', 1 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

An intriguing matchup between a mid-ranked team and a top contender (ranked 8th and 5th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cerrito won 0.

Neither team has been performing at its best in recent fixtures.

Cerrito could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Cerrito has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 9:19 (averaging 1.5:3.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Cerrito against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 4:6 goals (averaging 2:3 per game).

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	River Plate	21	8	6	7	31:26	5	30
8	Cerrito	21	7	8	6	27:24	3	29

Last Results with these Odds

River Plate Montevideo - the odds 2.65 are the expected chance of winning is 33.63%, but this team recently wins 9% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CS Cerrito
Uruguayan Segunda Division
13.09.26	Atenas de San Carlos - Cerrito	0:0 ✺
Uruguay Copa
10.09.26	Cerro - Cerrito	0:2 ✺
Uruguayan Segunda Division
05.09.26	Cerrito - Paysandú	1:2 ✺
Uruguay Copa
02.09.26	Cerrito - Deportivo Maldonado	0:2 ✺
Uruguayan Segunda Division
29.08.26	Huracán Paso de la Arena - Cerrito	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 TWLLL
- River Plate Montevideo
Uruguay Copa
16.09.26	Albion Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	0:0 ✺
Uruguayan Segunda Division
13.09.26	River Plate Montevideo - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	0:1 ✺
06.09.26	Atenas de San Carlos - River Plate Montevideo	3:2 ✺
Uruguay Copa
03.09.26	River Plate Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	2:3 ✺
Uruguayan Segunda Division
30.08.26	River Plate Montevideo - Rentistas	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 TLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Segunda Division
14.06.26	River Plate Montevideo - Cerrito	6:4
Uruguayan Primera Division
05.09.22	Cerrito - River Plate Montevideo	1:5
10.06.22	River Plate Montevideo - Cerrito	3:0
28.02.22	River Plate Montevideo - Cerrito	3:1
11.09.21	River Plate Montevideo - Cerrito	1:0
16.05.21	Cerrito - River Plate Montevideo	3:1

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