Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 33

Date: 19 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube (Ceuta)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	FEF TV


	Ceuta		Marbella

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.2	5.5
	1.75	3.2	4.2
	1.65	3.5	5.4
	1.64	3.57	5.19
	1.63	3.54	5.16	Watch
	1.63	3.62	5.19
	1.65	3.15	4.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↓ (1.72)	3.4 ↑ (3.28)	5.06 ↑ (5.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ceuta
55.2%

Draw
26.8%

Marbella
18%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.6%

28.1%

18.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.5%

27.6%

18%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceuta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Marbella has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ceuta than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

The ML Model estimate for Marbella aligns with the current prediction.

Ceuta - Marbella Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lopez P. (G) 7. Ahmed A. 4. Caparros A. 25. Cantero Y. 16. Redruello Nimo C. 20. Escudero A. 8. Zalazar K. 3. Youness 19. Jamelli 22. Kone K. 9. Rodri	1. Puerto E. (G) 2. Alvarez J. 20. Bernardo 14. Olguin M. 10. Punal A. 18. Awudu T. 23. Pena M. 25. Lopez A. 19. Ohemeng E. 7. Callejon J. (C) 16. Hanza D.
Substitutes
28. Aniekan B. 5. Bellotti M. 15. Guzman J. 6. Hernandez C. 12. Herranz Corral V. 14. Lopez B. 21. Lopez J. 26. Peri 10. Rodriguez C. 32. Rodriguez D. 13. Vallejo G. (G)	4. Carrasco J. 6. Duarte J. 9. Du Yuezheng 24. Edwards R. 3. Fornes G. 13. Lopez M. 21. Munoz P. 11. Soto A. 8. Zequi

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
5', 1 - 0, Jamelli ⚽,
20', 1 - 1, Ohemeng E. ⚽,
24', Ahmed A. ↓, Guzman J. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
63', Pena M. ↓, Duarte J. ↑,
65', 2 - 1, Escudero A. ⚽,
67', Rodriguez C. 🟨,
72', Rodri ↓, Rodriguez C. ↑,
72', Escudero A. ↓, Bellotti M. ↑,
75', Alvarez J. ↓, Zequi ↑,
75', Bernardo ↓, Edwards R. ↑,
76', Lopez A. ↓, Fornes G. ↑,
83', 3 - 1, Rodriguez C. (Pen),
87', Zalazar K. ↓, Herranz Corral V. ↑,
87', Jamelli ↓, Rodriguez D. ↑,
88', Awudu T. ↓, Du Yuezheng ↑,

Preview

One of which is a team leader another one is from mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ LaLiga2 and 15).

Ceuta is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Recent matches Marbella is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Ceuta is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Ceuta won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:2 (average 1.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Ceuta
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
12.04.25	Real Murcia - Ceuta	1:1 ✺
06.04.25	Ceuta - Alcoyano	1:0 ✺
28.03.25	Intercity - Ceuta	1:2 ✺
22.03.25	Ceuta - Hércules	1:1 ✺
16.03.25	Atlético Sanluqueño - Ceuta	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 TWWTT
- Marbella FC
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
12.04.25	Marbella - Ibiza	2:1 ✺
05.04.25	Fuenlabrada - Marbella	1:1 ✺
29.03.25	Sevilla B - Marbella	0:1 ✺
23.03.25	Marbella - Alcoyano	0:2 ✺
15.03.25	Betis B - Marbella	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 WTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
08.09.24	Marbella - Ceuta	0:1
Spanish Copa Federacion
21.11.18	Marbella - Ceuta	2:2

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