Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 31

Date: 6 April 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube (Ceuta)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	FEF TV


	Ceuta		Alcoyano

	1	X	2
	1.67	3	5.5
	1.63	3.3	4.8
	1.69	3.35	5.2
	1.64	3.39	5.52	Watch
	1.68	3.42	5.15
	1.69	3.35	5.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↓ (1.75)	3.3 ↑ (3.16)	5.23 ↑ (5.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ceuta
54.8%

Draw
27.7%

Alcoyano
17.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.6%

29.1%

18.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54%

28.3%

17.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceuta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Alcoyano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ceuta than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alcoyano than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Ceuta - Alcoyano Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lopez P. (G) 25. Cantero Y. 4. Caparros A. 16. Redruello Nimo C. 7. Ahmed A. 5. Bellotti M. 8. Zalazar K. 10. Rodriguez C. 20. Escudero A. 19. Jamelli 9. Rodri	1. Garcia M. (G) 18. Atienza P. 2. Ferriz P. 17. Lopez S. 5. Albisua H. 6. Garcia I. 9. de Palmas R. 8. Molina D. 14. Anton J. 23. Pastrana V. 19. Losada M.
Substitutes
23. Almenara G. 28. Aniekan B. 11. Aquino D. 15. Guzman J. 6. Hernandez C. 12. Herranz Corral V. 14. Lopez B. 21. Lopez J. 32. Rodriguez D. 13. Vallejo G. (G)	15. Blanco C. 7. Herrera C. 10. Lara J. A. 24. Qasmi Y. 3. Rodriguez A. 13. Valens J. (G) 22. Velazquez D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
37', 1 - 0, Bellotti M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
63', Albisua H. ↓, Herrera C. ↑,
63', Escudero A. ↓, Almenara G. ↑,
64', Ferriz P. 🟨,
75', de Palmas R. ↓, Qasmi Y. ↑,
76', Bellotti M. ↓, Aniekan B. ↑,
76', Rodriguez C. ↓, Guzman J. ↑,
82', Ahmed A. ↓, Aquino D. ↑,
82', Jamelli ↓, Hernandez C. ↑,
84', Hernandez C. 🟨,
87', Losada M. ↓, Lara J. A. ↑,
90', Redruello Nimo C. 🟨,

Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and an outsider (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ LaLiga2 and 18 in the zone Relegation).

Ceuta is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Alcoyano is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Ceuta could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Ceuta is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Ceuta won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3:4 (average 1:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Ceuta won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Ceuta
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
28.03.25	Intercity - Ceuta	1:2 ✺
22.03.25	Ceuta - Hércules	1:1 ✺
16.03.25	Atlético Sanluqueño - Ceuta	0:0 ✺
09.03.25	Ceuta - Antequera	2:2 ✺
02.03.25	Villarreal B - Ceuta	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 WTTTW
- CD Alcoyano
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
30.03.25	Alcoyano - Mérida AD	2:3 ✺
23.03.25	Marbella - Alcoyano	0:2 ✺
15.03.25	Sevilla B - Alcoyano	2:0 ✺
09.03.25	Alcoyano - Hércules	1:2 ✺
01.03.25	Alcorcón - Alcoyano	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
24.11.24	Alcoyano - Ceuta	1:1
12.05.24	Alcoyano - Ceuta	3:1
17.09.23	Ceuta - Alcoyano	1:0

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