Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 32

Date: 12 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Enrique Roca (Murcia)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	FEF TV


	Real Murcia		Ceuta

	1	X	2
	2.25	2.9	3.2
	2.15	2.8	3.3
	2.29	2.95	3.3
	2.32	2.89	3.22	Watch
	2.34	2.98	3.14
	2.29	2.95	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.27 ↑ (2.02)	2.91 ↓ (3.13)	3.24 ↓ (3.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Murcia
40.3%

Draw
31.5%

Ceuta
28.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.5%

29.4%

25.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.4%

28.2%

24.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Murcia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Real Murcia's form might have worsened.

Ceuta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Murcia than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Real Murcia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ceuta than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

Real Murcia - Ceuta Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gazzaniga G. (G) 18. Vicente D. 6. Gonzalez A. 5. Jaso Zunzarren A. 28. Forns I. 14. Leon P. 30. Palmberg 10. Gomez I. 23. Bosilj D. 12. Alcania R. 9. Benito P. A. P.	13. Vallejo G. (G) 7. Ahmed A. 4. Caparros A. 25. Cantero Y. 16. Redruello Nimo C. 20. Escudero A. 8. Zalazar K. 3. Youness 19. Jamelli 22. Kone K. 9. Rodri
Substitutes
16. Boateng R. 7. Buron L. 21. Cadete 20. Davo 29. Matheus Cadorini 2. Mier J. 24. Moha Moukhliss 13. Piedra I. (G) 17. Rojas C. 19. Soler K. 27. Toral A. 15. Yriarte J.	23. Almenara G. 28. Aniekan B. 11. Aquino D. 5. Bellotti M. 15. Guzman J. 6. Hernandez C. 12. Herranz Corral V. 14. Lopez B. 21. Lopez J. 1. Lopez P. (G) 10. Rodriguez C. 32. Rodriguez D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
33', 0 - 1, Rodri ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Alcania R. ↓, Davo ↑,
57', Leon P. ↓, Moha Moukhliss ↑,
57', Palmberg ↓, Rojas C. ↑,
68', Escudero A. ↓, Hernandez C. ↑,
68', Benito P. A. P. ↓, Toral A. ↑,
76', Redruello Nimo C. ↓, Guzman J. ↑,
76', Kone K. ↓, Bellotti M. ↑,
77', Jamelli ↓, Rodriguez C. ↑,
77', Ahmed A. 🟨,
79', Gazzaniga G. 🟨,
81', 1 - 1, Bosilj D. ⚽,
85', Rodri ↓, Aquino D. ↑,
87', Rojas C. ↓, Matheus Cadorini ↑,
90+1', Caparros A. 🟨,
90+3', Zalazar K. 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day. Two teams from the very top of the board will meet (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Promotion Play Offs and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ LaLiga2).

Now both teams are in good shape.

Ceuta could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Murcia will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Murcia won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3:5 (average 1:1.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Murcia won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Murcia
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
06.04.25	Betis B - Real Murcia	1:2 ✺
30.03.25	Real Murcia - Recreativo Huelva	3:0 ✺
21.03.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Real Murcia	0:0 ✺
16.03.25	Real Murcia - Fuenlabrada	2:0 ✺
07.03.25	Atlético Madrid B - Real Murcia	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WWTWL
- AD Ceuta
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
06.04.25	Ceuta - Alcoyano	1:0 ✺
28.03.25	Intercity - Ceuta	1:2 ✺
22.03.25	Ceuta - Hércules	1:1 ✺
16.03.25	Atlético Sanluqueño - Ceuta	0:0 ✺
09.03.25	Ceuta - Antequera	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WWTTT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
03.11.24	Ceuta - Real Murcia	4:2
28.04.24	Real Murcia - Ceuta	1:0
05.11.23	Ceuta - Real Murcia	1:0

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