Match Info

LaLiga2 - Round 7

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube (Ceuta)

Referee: Miranda D. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Izzi TV
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Spain	DAZN Espana, LaLiga Hypermotion
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+


	Ceuta		Real Sociedad B

	1	X	2
	2.65	3.30	2.50	Watch
	2.65	3.20	2.45
	2.55	3.30	2.43	Watch
	2.82	3.40	2.64
	2.78	3.44	2.49	Watch
	2.75	3.30	2.60
	2.88	3.34	2.46	Watch
	2.75	3.35	2.47
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.73 ↑ (2.16)	3.33 ↑ (3.3)	2.51 ↓ (2.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ceuta
34.4%

Draw
28.2%

Real Sociedad B
37.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.9%

27.4%

30.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4%

25.9%

29%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceuta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ceuta's form might have worsened.

Real Sociedad B has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Real Sociedad B's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ceuta than the current prediction. (+10%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ceuta, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Sociedad B than the current prediction. (-8.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Real Sociedad B, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.4%	7.7%	76.9%

Ceuta - Real Sociedad B Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Ceuta will win (votes: 2 - 15.4%). Real Sociedad B will win (votes: 10 - 76.9%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Real Sociedad B: 54% – 99.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Vallejo G. (G) 2. Toni Abad 6. Hernandez C. (C) 4. Caparros A. 3. Matos Jose 23. Anuar 15. Gonzalez J. 32. Okoro C. 22. Kone K. 8. Zalazar K. 7. Camacho A.	1. Fraga A. (G) 2. Garro J. 29. Ropero I. 5. Kita K. 3. Balda J. (C) 7. Diaz D. 14. Carbonell T. 6. Lebarbier A. 11. Marchal A. 18. Carrera G. 10. Mariezkurrena A.
Substitutes
26. Betancourt A. 14. Bodiger Y. 28. Bueno A. 9. Escobar J. 10. Illescas M. 27. Konare U. 1. Lopez P. (G) 34. Mas D. 20. Melendez A. 17. Mensah M.	23. Agote U. 8. Aguirre I. 17. Astiazaran L. 24. Ayo U. 15. Calderon I. 21. Eceizabarrena J. 13. Folgado T. (G) 16. Gorosabel G. 12. Oleaga J. 20. Osazuwa S. 22. Ruperez I. 19. Soroeta J.
Coaches
Romero J.	Ansotegi I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
33', Mariezkurrena A. 🟥,
44', Kita K. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
48', 0 - 1, Kita K. ⚽,
64', Gonzalez J. ↓, Escobar J. ↑,
66', Kita K. 🟨,
67', Marchal A. ↓, Agote U. ↑,
67', 1 - 1, Hernandez C. ⚽, Kone K. (A),
68', Romero J. 🟨,
71', Carrera G. 🟨,
71', Matos Jose 🟨,
71', Carrera G. ↓, Soroeta J. ↑,
72', Lebarbier A. ↓, Aguirre I. ↑,
72', Diaz D. ↓, Gorosabel G. ↑,
73', Okoro C. 🟨,
76', Okoro C. ↓, Illescas M. ↑,
76', Toni Abad ↓, Melendez A. ↑,
81', 2 - 1, Hernandez C. ⚽, Kone K. (A),
86', Kone K. ↓, Bueno A. ↑,
86', Anuar ↓, Betancourt A. ↑,
86', Ropero I. ↓, Osazuwa S. ↑,
89', Agote U. 🟨,
90', Zalazar K. 🟨,
90+7', Balda J. 🟨,
90+9', 3 - 1, Escobar J. ⚽, Bueno A. (A),

Preview

A determined lower-tier side seeks an essential result against mid-table opposition (ranked 22nd in the Relegation and 12th).

Ceuta has struggled for results with multiple recent losses (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Real Sociedad B has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Ceuta could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

Confirmed absences for Ceuta: Lapena A. (Injury) Mamah K. (Injury) Petxa A. (Injury) Sadik O. (Red Card) Sevikyan E. (International duty).

Confirmed absences for Real Sociedad B: Orobengoa E. (Knee Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Ceuta: Redruello Nimo C. (Inactive) Teguia C. (Injury).

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Ceuta has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 3:1 (averaging 1.5:0.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Ceuta against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 0:0 goals.

Outrights of Spanish LaLiga2 for now

Real Sociedad B: 1.19%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
16	Real Sociedad B	8	2	2	4	11:13	-2	8
21	Ceuta	8	1	2	5	7:18	-11	5

Last Results with these Odds

Ceuta - the odds 2.16 are the expected chance of winning is 41.9%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Real Sociedad B - the odds 2.95 are the expected chance of winning is 30.68%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Ceuta
Spanish LaLiga2
20.09.26	Ceuta - Valladolid	1:1 ✺
11.09.26	Burgos - Ceuta	3:1 ✺
05.09.26	Ceuta - Celta de Vigo B	0:2 ✺
30.08.26	Mallorca - Ceuta	3:0 ✺
22.08.26	Ceuta - Las Palmas	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 TLLLL
- Real Sociedad B
Spanish LaLiga2
19.09.26	Real Sociedad B - Mallorca	0:1 ✺
English Premier League International Cup
15.09.26	Aston Villa U21 - Real Sociedad B	5:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga2
12.09.26	FC Andorra - Real Sociedad B	1:3 ✺
05.09.26	Real Sociedad B - Tenerife	1:1 ✺
31.08.26	Burgos - Real Sociedad B	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18 LLWTT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
10.04.26	Ceuta - Real Sociedad B	0:0
21.12.25	Real Sociedad B - Ceuta	1:3

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