Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 29

Date: 30 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio de Chacarita Juniors (Buenos Aires)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports, TyC Sports Play
South-america	DGO Latin America
Uruguay	DSports 1
Venezuela	DSports 1


	Chacarita Juniors		Mitre

	1	X	2
	2.35	2.75	3.4	Watch
	2.05	2.8	3.9
	2.32	2.68	3.5	Watch
	2.45	2.75	3.8
	3.02	2.64	2.78	Watch
	2.1	2.75	4
	2.36	2.7	3.47
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.38 ↑ (2.08)	2.72 ↓ (2.89)	3.55 ↓ (3.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chacarita Juniors
39.3%

Draw
34.3%

Mitre
26.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.6%

32.1%

23.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.6%

32.1%

23.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chacarita Juniors has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Chacarita Juniors's form might have worsened.

Mitre has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chacarita Juniors than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Chacarita Juniors, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mitre than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Chacarita Juniors - Mitre Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Mitre (2.09) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Mitre (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Strumia J. (G) 2. Acosta S. 6. Andueza F. 11. Blanco R. 4. Fernandez T. 10. Figueroa V. (C) 7. Jaime M. 3. Quiroga A. 5. Quiroz M. 9. Rivero H. 8. Rodriguez Matias	1. Jachfe L. (G) 5. Alessandroni J. (C) 4. Diaz C. 7. Gonzalez R. 6. Melillan F. 8. Montenegro M. 2. Piris O. 11. Rios L. 9. Romero N. 10. Rosales S. 3. Wiechniak F.
Substitutes
20. Apa S. 12. Balderrama M. A. (G) 15. Barrios M. 16. Chaves N. 18. Ciccolini L. 19. Gerez E. 17. Melendez M. 13. Migliore T. 14. Perdomo L.	17. Gallardo D. 15. Kabalin M. 12. Ledesma J. (G) 19. Machado M. 18. Martinez E. 14. Penepil M. 16. Ramirez A. 20. Salinas R. 13. Sanchez M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
22', Melillan F. 🟨,
24', Romero N. 🟨,
26', 1 - 0, Figueroa V. (Pen),
28', Quiroz M. 🟨,
45+5', Rosales S. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Rodriguez Matias ↓, Melendez M. ↑,
46', Piris O. ↓, Sanchez M. ↑,
53', 1 - 1, Romero N. ⚽,
61', Blanco R. ↓, Ciccolini L. ↑,
67', Romero N. ↓, Gallardo D. ↑,
67', Figueroa V. ↓, Gerez E. ↑,
67', Montenegro M. ↓, Kabalin M. ↑,
67', Gonzalez R. ↓, Martinez E. ↑,
72', Quiroz M. ↓, Perdomo L. ↑,
72', Jaime M. ↓, Chaves N. ↑,
82', Rios L. ↓, Machado M. ↑,
86', 1 - 2, Martinez E. ⚽,
90+1', 2 - 2, Rivero H. ⚽,
90+4', Melillan F. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chacarita won 2.

Chacarita has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Mitre has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Chacarita is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Chacarita won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:8. (average 1.3:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Chacarita won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:6. (average 0.7:2).

Last Results with these Odds

Chacarita Juniors - the odds 2.08 are the expected chance of winning is 44.56%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chacarita Juniors
Argentinian Primera Nacional
23.08.25	Colón - Chacarita Juniors	1:1 ✺
16.08.25	Chacarita Juniors - Temperley	0:0 ✺
09.08.25	Defensores Unidos - Chacarita Juniors	0:0 ✺
03.08.25	Chacarita Juniors - Estudiantes de Caseros	0:3 ✺
26.07.25	Deportivo Morón - Chacarita Juniors	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 TTTLW
- CA Mitre
Argentinian Primera Nacional
24.08.25	Mitre - San Telmo	3:0 ✺
18.08.25	Agropecuario Argentino - Mitre	2:1 ✺
10.08.25	Mitre - Gimnasia Jujuy	1:1 ✺
03.08.25	Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza - Mitre	1:0 ✺
27.07.25	Mitre - Central Norte	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 WLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
27.04.25	Mitre - Chacarita Juniors	0:0
23.07.23	Mitre - Chacarita Juniors	1:2
18.03.23	Chacarita Juniors - Mitre	1:1
15.05.22	Mitre - Chacarita Juniors	0:3
12.11.21	Chacarita Juniors - Mitre	1:3
18.07.21	Mitre - Chacarita Juniors	1:2
04.12.18	Chacarita Juniors - Mitre	0:2

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