Match Info

K3 League - Round 24

Date: 13 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Changwon Gymnasium (Changwon)


	Changwon City		Gangneung

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2	3.2	3.1
	2.05	3.2	3.15
	2.12	3.35	3.46
	13.29	2.97	1.52	Watch
	2.13	3.32	3.37
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.32 ↑ (2.12)	3.21 ↓ (3.28)	2.92 ↓ (3.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Changwon City
26.1%

Draw
35.2%

Gangneung
38.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.6%

27.6%

29.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.8%

26.8%

29.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Changwon City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-16.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Changwon City's form might have worsened.

Gangneung has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Gangneung's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Changwon City than the current prediction. (+17.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Changwon City, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gangneung than the current prediction. (-9.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Gangneung, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	20%	0%

Changwon City - Gangneung Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Changwon will win (votes: 4 - 80%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Changwon (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
33', 🟥,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
54', 0 - 1, ⚽,
81', 1 - 1, ⚽,
87', 2 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 8 and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Changwon won 2.

Changwon is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Gangneung City is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Changwon is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Changwon won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 21:24. (average 1.1:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Changwon won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 10:11. (average 1.1:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Changwon City FC
South Korean K3 League
07.09.25	Gimhae - Changwon City	2:1 ✺
31.08.25	Changwon City - Daejeon Korail	0:0 ✺
23.08.25	Ulsan Citizen - Changwon City	0:1 ✺
01.08.25	Changwon City - Jeonbuk 2	3:1 ✺
27.07.25	Changwon City - Yangpyeong	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 LTWWW
- Gangneung FC
South Korean K3 League
06.09.25	Gangneung - Chuncheon	2:4 ✺
31.08.25	Paju Frontier - Gangneung	2:1 ✺
23.08.25	Gyeongju KH&NP - Gangneung	2:1 ✺
16.08.25	Gimhae - Gangneung	2:0 ✺
25.07.25	Gangneung - Daejeon Korail	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

South Korean K3 League
18.05.25	Gangneung - Changwon City	1:0
05.10.24	Gangneung - Changwon City	1:0
09.06.24	Changwon City - Gangneung	2:1
14.07.23	Changwon City - Gangneung	1:2
02.04.23	Gangneung - Changwon City	0:1
23.09.22	Changwon City - Gangneung	2:0
22.05.22	Gangneung - Changwon City	1:2

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