Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 23

Date: 22 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Chaves (Chaves)

Referee: Ramalho P. (Por)


	Chaves		Farense

	1	X	2
	2.4	3	2.8
	2.38	3.05	3
	2.34	3.2	3.23
	2.39	3.11	3.09	Watch
	2.4	2.8	2.9
	2.43	3.02	3.02	Watch
	2.3	3	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.38 ↑ (2.08)	3.03 ↓ (3.22)	3.03 ↓ (3.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chaves
38.9%

Draw
30.6%

Farense
30.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.9%

29%

26.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.9%

29%

26.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chaves has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Chaves's form might have worsened.

Farense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chaves than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Chaves, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Farense than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	33.3%	33.3%

Chaves - Farense Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Chaves will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Farense will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Vozinha (C) 4. Bruno Rodrigues 33. Simoes T. 3. Romero A. 19. Tiago Almeida 8. Pinho P. 20. Ktatau 77. Reinaldo 10. Rodrigues A. 17. Roberto 27. Esajas R.	99. Araujo B. (G) 78. Alex Pinto 4. Alysson 26. Ruben 34. Herrero T. 20. Semedo Y. 8. Menino M. 90. Sangare B. 10. Almeida B. 6. Derick Poloni 77. Matias M. (C)
Substitutes
34. Alves R. 15. Carraca 7. Delgado J. 23. Gudzulic M. (G) 97. Joao Teixeira 5. Kiko 30. Kusso D. 22. Muscat Z. 26. Rodrigues G.	22. Carvalho M. (G) 43. Dario Miranda 25. Dorregaray D. 21. Jaiminho 80. Ndiaye A. 19. Oliveira L. 14. Poveda D. 46. Rafael Pontelo 88. Teixeira R.
Coaches
Martins V.	Jose Faria

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
16', 1 - 0, Roberto ⚽, Bruno Rodrigues (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Herrero T. ↓, Jaiminho ↑,
46', Menino M. ↓, Dario Miranda ↑,
48', Jaiminho 🟨,
49', 2 - 0, Reinaldo ⚽,
62', Rodrigues A. ↓, Joao Teixeira ↑,
62', Esajas R. ↓, Kusso D. ↑,
65', Matias M. ↓, Dorregaray D. ↑,
68', Alysson 🟨,
72', Sangare B. ↓, Teixeira R. ↑,
72', Alysson ↓, Rafael Pontelo ↑,
73', Romero A. ↓, Alves R. ↑,
73', Roberto ↓, Delgado J. ↑,
76', Pinho P. 🟨,
81', Tiago Almeida ↓, Carraca ↑,
86', Alex Pinto 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 13 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chaves won 3.

Chaves is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Farense is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Chaves will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Chaves won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 17:15. (average 1.2:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Chaves won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:6. (average 1.2:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	SC Farense	6	3	2	1	11:5	6	11
16	Chaves	6	1	1	4	5:13	-8	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Desportivo Chaves
Portuguese Liga 2
14.02.26	Feirense - Chaves	1:0 ✺
06.02.26	Chaves - Penafiel	0:1 ✺
31.01.26	Felgueiras - Chaves	1:0 ✺
24.01.26	Chaves - Lusitânia	2:2 ✺
17.01.26	Benfica B - Chaves	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLTL
- SC Farense
Portuguese Liga 2
14.02.26	Farense - Leixões	1:2 ✺
07.02.26	Marítimo - Farense	0:1 ✺
31.01.26	Farense - Porto B	2:3 ✺
25.01.26	Torreense - Farense	2:1 ✺
17.01.26	Farense - Oliveirense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
28.09.25	Farense - Chaves	0:2
Liga Portugal
04.02.24	Chaves - Farense	1:1
26.08.23	Farense - Chaves	5:0
Portuguese Liga 2
30.04.22	Farense - Chaves	1:2
18.12.21	Chaves - Farense	2:1
Portuguese League Cup
24.07.21	Chaves - Farense	1:2
Portuguese Liga 2
30.11.19	Farense - Chaves	1:0

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