Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 18

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio de São Luís (Faro)

Referee: Azevedo Duarte F. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	DAZN Japan
Portugal	Sport TV1


	Farense		Oliveirense

	1	X	2
	1.53	3.6	5.5
	1.55	3.9	5.5
	1.55	4.12	5.75	Watch
	1.57	3.5	5
	1.57	3.85	5.67
	1.53	3.8	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 (1.55)	3.8 ↓ (4.12)	5.57 ↑ (5.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Farense
59.3%

Draw
24.2%

Oliveirense
16.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.4%

22.7%

16.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.5%

21.9%

16.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Farense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Oliveirense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Farense than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Oliveirense than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	12.5%	25%

Farense - Oliveirense Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Farense will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Oliveirense will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Farense: 29% – 96%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Farense (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Araujo B. (G) 43. Dario Miranda 4. Alysson 26. Ruben 34. Herrero T. 29. Claudio Falcao (C) 21. Jaiminho 10. Almeida B. 8. Menino M. 9. Carter A. 7. Costa R.	31. Ribeiro R. (G) 4. Bura (C) 75. Namora N. 13. Santos V. 2. Douglas Borel 99. Sabino 8. Ondoa F. 19. Lopes A. 21. Silva J. 7. Joao Adriano 10. Bruno Silva
Substitutes
17. Candeias A. 6. Derick Poloni 25. Dorregaray D. 77. Matias M. 80. Ndiaye A. 5. Romero F. 90. Sangare B. 20. Semedo Y. 30. Tannander J. (G)	26. Bastos L. 16. Diallo A. 40. Greis N. (G) 23. Gustavao 18. Jesus P. 11. Joanderson 17. Lucas Henrique 9. Martelo P. 25. Takahashi T.
Coaches
Neto P.	Pinto J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Joao Adriano ↓, Diallo A. ↑,
53', Sabino 🟨,
61', Almeida B. 🟨,
64', Jaiminho 🟨,
66', Menino M. 🟨,
67', Almeida B. ↓, Sangare B. ↑,
73', Claudio Falcao 🟨,
76', Jaiminho ↓, Semedo Y. ↑,
77', Menino M. ↓, Derick Poloni ↑,
77', Costa R. ↓, Candeias A. ↑,
79', Douglas Borel ↓, Martelo P. ↑,
80', Lopes A. 🟨,
85', Bruno Silva ↓, Joanderson ↑,
88', Diallo A. 🟨,
88', Herrero T. ↓, Matias M. ↑,
90+2', Lopes A. ↓, Bastos L. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 13 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Farense won 4.

Farense is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Oliveirense has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Farense may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Farense is considered a favorite.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Farense won 8 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 31:22. (average 1.9:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Farense won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 22:6. (average 3.1:0.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	SC Farense	6	3	2	1	11:5	6	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Farense
Portuguese Liga 2
03.01.26	Farense - Portimonense	0:1 ✺
28.12.25	Paços de Ferreira - Farense	0:0 ✺
21.12.25	Farense - Leiria	0:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
17.12.25	Farense - Benfica	0:2 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
13.12.25	Académico de Viseu - Farense	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LTLLL
- UD Oliveirense
Portuguese Liga 2
11.01.26	Oliveirense - Feirense	3:4 ✺
03.01.26	Felgueiras - Oliveirense	1:0 ✺
22.12.25	Lusitânia - Oliveirense	0:1 ✺
12.12.25	Oliveirense - Chaves	2:3 ✺
06.12.25	Benfica B - Oliveirense	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
11.08.25	Oliveirense - Farense	1:1
Portuguese League Cup
29.07.23	Farense - Oliveirense	3:2
Portuguese Liga 2
14.04.23	Oliveirense - Farense	1:2
30.10.22	Farense - Oliveirense	2:0
16.02.20	Farense - Oliveirense	3:1
01.09.19	Oliveirense - Farense	0:1
26.04.19	Oliveirense - Farense	2:1

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