Match Info

National League South - Round 10

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Melbourne Stadium (Chelmsford)


	Chelmsford City		Horsham

	1	X	2
	1.82	3.40	3.60
	1.74	3.50	3.90
	1.88	3.73	3.95
	1.9	3.61	3.78	Watch
	1.82	3.65	3.90
	1.90	3.63	3.73
	1.91	3.45	3.50
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↑ (1.8)	3.57 ↓ (3.61)	3.77 ↓ (3.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chelmsford City
49.7%

Draw
25.8%

Horsham
24.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.7%

25.3%

23.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53%

24.2%

22.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chelmsford City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Horsham has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chelmsford City than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Horsham than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Chelmsford City - Horsham Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Two mid-table squads battle for vital points to solidify their season (ranked 14th and 15th).

Each of the two teams is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.

Horsham may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Bookmakers give the edge to Chelmsford for this game.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Chelmsford has recorded 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 4:2 (averaging 2:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Chelmsford against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 1:0 goals.

Outrights of English National League South for now

Chelmsford: 5.21% Horsham FC: 1.91%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
16	Chelmsford	9	1	8	0	9:8	1	11
17	Horsham FC	9	2	5	2	9:10	-1	11

Last Results with these Odds

Chelmsford City - the odds 1.8 are the expected chance of winning is 50.74%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chelmsford City
English National League South
12.09.26	Hampton & Richmond Borough - Chelmsford City	1:1 ✺
08.09.26	Dorking Wanderers - Chelmsford City	3:3 ✺
05.09.26	Chelmsford City - Salisbury	1:1 ✺
31.08.26	Weston-super-Mare - Chelmsford City	1:1 ✺
29.08.26	Chelmsford City - Maidenhead United	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 TTTTW
- Horsham FC
English FA Cup
19.09.26	Walton & Hersham - Horsham	0:3 ✺
English National League South
12.09.26	Horsham - Chesham United	1:4 ✺
08.09.26	Folkestone Invicta - Horsham	1:1 ✺
05.09.26	Horsham - Dagenham & Redbridge	1:1 ✺
29.08.26	Horsham - Farnham Town	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WLTTL

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
24.01.26	Horsham - Chelmsford City	2:3
09.08.25	Chelmsford City - Horsham	1:0

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