Match Info

National League South - Round 20

Date: 29 November 2025, Saturday


	Chelmsford City		Torquay United

	1	X	2
	2.52	3.35	2.48
	2.54	3.5	2.59
	3.00	3.53	2.17	Watch
	2.54	3.53	2.54
	2.57	3.33	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.63 ↓ (3)	3.45 ↓ (3.53)	2.46 ↑ (2.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chelmsford City
35.3%

Draw
26.9%

Torquay United
37.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.9%

26.3%

42.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.8%

25.4%

44.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chelmsford City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

Torquay United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chelmsford City than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Chelmsford City that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Torquay United than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Torquay United could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Chelmsford City - Torquay United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 2)
60', 0 - 1, Wilson K. ⚽,
63', 0 - 2, Young J. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 10 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chelmsford won 2.

Chelmsford has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Torquay is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Chelmsford won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:9. (average 1.5:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Chelmsford won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 1.7:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chelmsford City
English National League South
25.11.25	Hemel Hempstead Town - Chelmsford City	2:1 ✺
22.11.25	Salisbury - Chelmsford City	3:0 ✺
English FA Trophy
15.11.25	Hemel Hempstead Town - Chelmsford City	1:0 penalties ✺
English National League South
10.11.25	Chelmsford City - Hornchurch	2:0 ✺
08.11.25	Chelmsford City - Hampton & Richmond Borough	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LLLWW
- Torquay United
English National League South
25.11.25	Torquay United - Worthing	3:2 ✺
22.11.25	Torquay United - Eastbourne Borough	7:0 ✺
English FA Trophy
15.11.25	Torquay United - Maidstone United	0:2 ✺
English National League South
08.11.25	Maidenhead United - Torquay United	1:2 ✺
05.11.25	Farnborough - Torquay United	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
22.02.25	Chelmsford City - Torquay United	3:2
02.11.24	Torquay United - Chelmsford City	2:2
23.12.23	Chelmsford City - Torquay United	2:0
09.09.23	Torquay United - Chelmsford City	2:1
02.04.19	Torquay United - Chelmsford City	3:1
04.08.18	Chelmsford City - Torquay United	0:0

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