Match Info

National League South - Round 19

Date: 25 November 2025, Tuesday


	Hemel Hempstead Town		Chelmsford City

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.3	2.98
	2.27	3.39	3.03
	2.25	3.39	2.96	Watch
	2.19	3.24	2.99
	2.25	3.33	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↓ (2.25)	3.33 ↓ (3.39)	2.97 ↑ (2.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hemel Hempstead Town
41.3%

Draw
27.7%

Chelmsford City
31%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.3%

27.4%

31.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.8%

27.8%

31%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Hemel Hempstead Town have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Chelmsford City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hemel Hempstead Town than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

The ML Model estimate for Chelmsford City aligns with the current prediction.

Hemel Hempstead Town - Chelmsford City Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
44', Clark T. (Pen),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
49', 1 - 0, Cook T. ⚽,
59', 2 - 0, Wiltshire K. ⚽,
89', Longe-King D. 🟥,
90+10', 2 - 1, Murphy J. ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hemel Hempstead won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Hemel Hempstead could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Hemel Hempstead won 7 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 35:33. (average 1.8:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Hemel Hempstead won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 20:18. (average 1.8:1.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Hemel Hempstead Town - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 41.26%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hemel Hempstead Town
English National League South
22.11.25	Hemel Hempstead Town - Horsham	1:1 ✺
English FA Trophy
15.11.25	Hemel Hempstead Town - Chelmsford City	1:0 penalties ✺
English National League South
08.11.25	Worthing - Hemel Hempstead Town	4:0 ✺
04.11.25	Hemel Hempstead Town - Weston-super-Mare	3:0 ✺
English FA Cup
01.11.25	Wigan Athletic - Hemel Hempstead Town	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 TWLWL
- Chelmsford City
English National League South
22.11.25	Salisbury - Chelmsford City	3:0 ✺
English FA Trophy
15.11.25	Hemel Hempstead Town - Chelmsford City	1:0 penalties ✺
English National League South
10.11.25	Chelmsford City - Hornchurch	2:0 ✺
08.11.25	Chelmsford City - Hampton & Richmond Borough	1:0 ✺
04.11.25	Tonbridge Angels - Chelmsford City	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

English FA Trophy
15.11.25	Hemel Hempstead Town - Chelmsford City	1:0 penalties
English National League South
10.02.25	Chelmsford City - Hemel Hempstead Town	0:0
21.10.24	Hemel Hempstead Town - Chelmsford City	2:2
20.02.24	Hemel Hempstead Town - Chelmsford City	1:4
04.09.23	Chelmsford City - Hemel Hempstead Town	1:2
22.04.23	Hemel Hempstead Town - Chelmsford City	0:0
22.10.22	Chelmsford City - Hemel Hempstead Town	2:1

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