Match Info

ENGLAND: Southern League Premier South - Round 15

Date: 9 November 2024, Saturday


	Chertsey Town		Swindon Supermarine

	1	X	2
	1.68	4	3.6
	1.71	3.95	3.8
	1.71	4.26	3.71
	1.71	4.3	4.02
	1.7	3.94	3.9
	1.71	3.95	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↓ (1.94)	4.07 ↑ (3.73)	3.81 ↑ (3.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chertsey Town
53.6%

Draw
22.4%

Swindon Supermarine
24%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.9%

24.4%

28.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.5%

23.6%

27.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chertsey Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Chertsey Town's performance.

Swindon Supermarine has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chertsey Town than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Chertsey Town that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Swindon Supermarine than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Chertsey Town - Swindon Supermarine Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 3)
8', 1 - 0, Knight O. ⚽,
16', 1 - 1, Reivers G. ⚽,
33', 1 - 2, Fernandes M. (Pen),
45', 1 - 3, Williams H. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
53', 2 - 3, Mazzone J. ⚽,
56', 3 - 3, Mazzone J. ⚽,
81', 3 - 4, Williams H. ⚽,
88', Birch L. 🟥,

Preview

Let's enjoy game between two mid-table teams (ranked 11 and 12).

Chertsey is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Swindon Supermarine is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Chertsey will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chertsey Town
English Southern League South Division
02.11.24	Wimborne Town - Chertsey Town	1:3 ✺
English FA Trophy
26.10.24	Uxbridge - Chertsey Town	0:3 ✺
English Southern League South Division
22.10.24	Chertsey Town - Sholing	4:0 ✺
19.10.24	Chertsey Town - Plymouth Parkway	1:2 ✺
15.10.24	Marlow - Chertsey Town	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 WWWLW
- Swindon Supermarine
English Southern League South Division
02.11.24	Swindon Supermarine - Dorchester Town	1:0 ✺
26.10.24	Swindon Supermarine - Basingstoke Town	2:2 ✺
22.10.24	Bracknell Town - Swindon Supermarine	4:2 ✺
19.10.24	Gosport Borough - Swindon Supermarine	3:2 ✺
15.10.24	Swindon Supermarine - Winchester City	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WTLLW

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