Match Info

FA Trophy - 1/64-finals

Date: 15 November 2025, Saturday

Location: The Meadow (Chesham)


	Chesham United		AFC Telford United

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.45	2.68
	2.67	3.4	2.29
	3.62	2.33	2.70	Watch
	2.35	3.32	2.61
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.75 ↑ (2.02)	3.13 ↓ (3.3)	2.57 ↓ (3.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chesham United
33.9%

Draw
29.8%

AFC Telford United
36.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.8%

27.5%

27.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.9%

27.4%

27.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chesham United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Chesham United's form might have worsened.

AFC Telford United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting AFC Telford United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chesham United than the current prediction. (+11%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Chesham United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AFC Telford United than the current prediction. (-8.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for AFC Telford United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Chesham United - AFC Telford United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, Stenson M. ⚽,
20', 1 - 1, Minhas N. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
90+7', 1 - 2, Williams C. ⚽,

Preview

Chesham has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Telford's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Chesham may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Chesham will hold a modest advantage in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Last Results with these Odds

Chesham United - the odds 2.02 are the expected chance of winning is 44.85%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chesham United
English National League South
08.11.25	Chesham United - Salisbury	0:1 ✺
04.11.25	Hornchurch - Chesham United	1:1 ✺
01.11.25	Chesham United - Chippenham Town	2:1 ✺
25.10.25	Eastbourne Borough - Chesham United	1:2 ✺
21.10.25	Chesham United - Worthing	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 LTWWL
- AFC Telford United
English National League North
11.11.25	Marine - AFC Telford United	2:1 ✺
08.11.25	Macclesfield Town - AFC Telford United	1:1 ✺
04.11.25	AFC Telford United - Merthyr Town	2:4 ✺
English FA Cup
01.11.25	Sutton United - AFC Telford United	2:1 ✺
English National League North
25.10.25	AFC Telford United - Worksop Town	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LTLLW

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