Match Info

National League South - Round 16

Date: 4 November 2025, Tuesday


	Hornchurch		Chesham United

	1	X	2
	1.72	3.6	4.25
	1.72	3.77	4.51
	1.76	3.79	4.07	Watch
	1.72	3.81	4.46
	1.81	3.4	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↓ (1.76)	3.67 ↓ (3.79)	4.26 ↑ (4.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hornchurch
53%

Draw
25.2%

Chesham United
21.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.7%

24.5%

22.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.2%

23.8%

22.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hornchurch has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Chesham United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hornchurch than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chesham United than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Hornchurch - Chesham United Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Chesham (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
52', 0 - 1, Rasulo G. ⚽,
82', 1 - 1, Hearn H. ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ National League and 10).

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Hornchurch may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Hornchurch has had a series of home games.

In this match, Hornchurch is a strong favorite.

We predict that Hornchurch will win today's game, with odds of 1.8.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Hornchurch won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 2.5:1).

Including home match between the teams, Hornchurch won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AFC Hornchurch
English National League South
01.11.25	Torquay United - Hornchurch	1:2 ✺
25.10.25	Hornchurch - Hampton & Richmond Borough	2:1 ✺
18.10.25	Hornchurch - Bath City	3:2 ✺
04.10.25	Hornchurch - Horsham	1:1 ✺
27.09.25	Hornchurch - Dover Athletic	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WWWTT
- Chesham United
English National League South
01.11.25	Chesham United - Chippenham Town	2:1 ✺
25.10.25	Eastbourne Borough - Chesham United	1:2 ✺
21.10.25	Chesham United - Worthing	1:2 ✺
18.10.25	Chesham United - Torquay United	1:0 ✺
11.10.25	Maidstone United - Chesham United	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.9 WWLWT

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
22.02.25	Hornchurch - Chesham United	2:1
03.12.24	Chesham United - Hornchurch	1:3

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