Match Info

National League North - Round 16

Date: 4 November 2025, Tuesday

Location: New Bucks Head (Telford)


	AFC Telford United		Merthyr Town

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.9	3.9
	1.68	4.05	4.15
	1.68	4.18	4.26
	1.76	4.20	3.71	Watch
	1.64	3.92	4.31
	1.65	3.75	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↓ (1.76)	4 ↓ (4.2)	4.06 ↑ (3.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AFC Telford United
54.6%

Draw
22.9%

Merthyr Town
22.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.8%

22.1%

25.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.9%

21.6%

24.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AFC Telford United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Merthyr Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AFC Telford United than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Merthyr Town than the current prediction. (+2%)

AFC Telford United - Merthyr Town Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 3)
14', 1 - 0, Stenson M. ⚽,
18', 1 - 1, Rees R. ⚽,
31', 1 - 2, Rees R. ⚽,
41', 1 - 3, Rees R. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
71', 1 - 4, Rees R. (Pen),
87', 2 - 4, George A. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 16 and 9).

Telford is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Merthyr has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Telford is considered a favorite.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

AFC Telford United - the odds 1.76 are the expected chance of winning is 52.81%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AFC Telford United
English FA Cup
01.11.25	Sutton United - AFC Telford United	2:1 ✺
English National League North
25.10.25	AFC Telford United - Worksop Town	2:1 ✺
21.10.25	Hereford - AFC Telford United	1:1 ✺
18.10.25	AFC Telford United - Scarborough Athletic	4:1 ✺
English FA Cup
11.10.25	Darlington - AFC Telford United	0:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 LWTWW
- Merthyr Town
English National League North
01.11.25	Merthyr Town - Darlington	3:1 ✺
25.10.25	Chorley - Merthyr Town	0:2 ✺
21.10.25	Merthyr Town - Kidderminster Harriers	0:1 ✺
18.10.25	Spennymoor Town - Merthyr Town	6:4 ✺
04.10.25	Chester - Merthyr Town	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.5 WWLLT

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