Match Info

Serie D - Group F - Round 11

Date: 9 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadio Guido Angelini (Chieti)


	Chieti		Castelfidardo

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.42	4.88
	1.79	3.60	3.91	Watch
	1.62	3.44	5.19
	1.56	3.8	5.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↓ (1.71)	3.57 ↓ (3.75)	4.8 ↑ (4.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chieti
55.6%

Draw
25.5%

Castelfidardo
18.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.8%

24.5%

21.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.1%

20.5%

25.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chieti has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Castelfidardo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chieti than the current prediction. (-10.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Chieti that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Castelfidardo than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Castelfidardo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Chieti - Castelfidardo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
36', 1 - 0, Grandis T. ⚽,
42', 1 - 1, Abagnale G. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
80', 1 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 10 and 18 in the zone Relegation).

Recent performances by Chieti have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Castelfidardo is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Chieti is seen as the favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chieti won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:6. (average 0.6:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Chieti won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chieti Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group F
02.11.25	San Marino Calcio - Chieti	2:0 ✺
26.10.25	Chieti - Atletico Ascoli	0:3 ✺
19.10.25	Termoli - Chieti	1:1 ✺
12.10.25	Chieti - Ancona	0:0 ✺
05.10.25	Notaresco - Chieti	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LLTTW
- Castelfidardo Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group F
02.11.25	Recanatese - Castelfidardo	3:1 ✺
26.10.25	Castelfidardo - Ostia Mare	0:3 ✺
19.10.25	San Marino Calcio - Castelfidardo	1:0 ✺
12.10.25	Castelfidardo - Atletico Ascoli	1:6 ✺
05.10.25	Termoli - Castelfidardo	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group F
26.01.25	Castelfidardo - Chieti	0:1
29.09.24	Chieti - Castelfidardo	1:0
06.03.22	Castelfidardo - Chieti	3:0
24.10.21	Chieti - Castelfidardo	0:2
07.02.16	Castelfidardo - Chieti	1:1

Chieti - Castelfidardo: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide