Match Info

Serie D - Group F - Round 10

Date: 2 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Nicola Tubaldi (Recanati)


	Recanatese		Castelfidardo

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.4	3.8
	2.06	3.61	3.03	Watch
	1.94	3.32	3.51
	1.88	3.4	3.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.92 ↓ (2.04)	3.43 ↓ (3.53)	3.51 ↑ (3.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Recanatese
47.5%

Draw
26.6%

Castelfidardo
26%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.5%

25.7%

29.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.3%

25.2%

29.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Recanatese has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Castelfidardo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Recanatese than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Castelfidardo than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Recanatese - Castelfidardo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
15', 0 - 1, Selemby B. ⚽,
16', 1 - 1, Pierfederici G. ⚽,
19', 2 - 1, Pesaresi ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
90', 3 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 16 in the zone Serie D ~ Group F (Play Out: ) and 18 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Recanatese won 1.

In recent games, both teams have suffered a series of defeats.

Recently, Recanatese has had a series of away games.

Recanatese is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Recanatese won 2 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 17:13. (average 1.7:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Recanatese won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:7. (average 2.5:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- USD Recanatese 1923
Italian Serie D - Group F
26.10.25	UniPomezia - Recanatese	1:0 ✺
19.10.25	Atletico Ascoli - Recanatese	2:0 ✺
05.10.25	Ancona - Recanatese	2:0 ✺
24.09.25	L Aquila - Recanatese	2:1 ✺
21.09.25	Recanatese - Termoli	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1 LLLLT
- Castelfidardo Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group F
26.10.25	Castelfidardo - Ostia Mare	0:3 ✺
19.10.25	San Marino Calcio - Castelfidardo	1:0 ✺
12.10.25	Castelfidardo - Atletico Ascoli	1:6 ✺
05.10.25	Termoli - Castelfidardo	2:2 ✺
28.09.25	Castelfidardo - Ancona	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group F
09.03.25	Castelfidardo - Recanatese	1:1
11.05.22	Recanatese - Castelfidardo	2:3
19.12.21	Castelfidardo - Recanatese	0:2
16.05.21	Castelfidardo - Recanatese	2:1
17.01.21	Recanatese - Castelfidardo	1:1
18.03.18	Recanatese - Castelfidardo	5:1
01.11.17	Castelfidardo - Recanatese	1:1

Recanatese - Castelfidardo: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide