Match Info

National League North - Round 7

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday

Location: RAW Charging Stadium (Oxford)


	Oxford City		Chorley

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.6	3.7
	1.85	3.40	3.40
	1.85	3.45	3.65
	1.8	4.03	3.98
	1.89	3.85	3.55	Watch
	1.78	3.95	3.75
	1.86	3.71	3.82
	1.86	3.5	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↓ (2.12)	3.69 ↑ (3.42)	3.68 ↑ (2.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oxford City
50.1%

Draw
24.9%

Chorley
25%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.7%

26.5%

30.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.7%

25.9%

30%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oxford City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Oxford City's performance.

Chorley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Chorley might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Oxford City than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Oxford City that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chorley than the current prediction. (+5%)

Oxford City - Chorley Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
32', 1 - 0, Marsh T. ⚽,
44', 2 - 0, Pollock S. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
48', 3 - 0, Bateman B. ⚽,
67', 4 - 0, Marsh T. ⚽,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ National League North (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Oxford City won 1.

Oxford City is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Chorley has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Oxford City may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Oxford City could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Oxford City won 1 match, drew 5 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:6. (average 1.3:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Oxford City won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 1.3:0.7).

Outrights of English National League North for now

Oxford City: 5.44% Chorley: 1.09%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Oxford City	10	6	2	2	18:7	11	20
12	Chorley	10	4	2	4	16:17	-1	14

Last Results with these Odds

Chorley - the odds 2.95 are the expected chance of winning is 30.75%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Oxford City
English National League North
31.08.26	Worksop Town - Oxford City	0:1 ✺
28.08.26	Oxford City - Buxton	2:3 ✺
22.08.26	Spennymoor Town - Oxford City	1:4 ✺
18.08.26	Oxford City - Harborough Town	1:1 ✺
15.08.26	Spalding United - Oxford City	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.2 WLWTW
- Chorley
English National League North
31.08.26	Chorley - Brackley Town	2:2 ✺
29.08.26	Merthyr Town - Chorley	1:1 ✺
22.08.26	Chorley - Scarborough Athletic	2:1 ✺
18.08.26	Marine - Chorley	0:2 ✺
15.08.26	South Shields - Chorley	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 TTWWL

Latest Head to Head

English National League North
21.03.26	Oxford City - Chorley	2:0
11.10.25	Chorley - Oxford City	3:3
21.01.25	Chorley - Oxford City	0:0
31.08.24	Oxford City - Chorley	2:2
24.02.15	Chorley - Oxford City	1:1
16.08.14	Oxford City - Chorley	0:0

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