Match Info

Leagues Cup - Round 3

Date: 7 August 2025, Thursday

Location: TQL Stadium (Cincinnati, OH)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	MLS Season Pass, SiriusXM FC
World	Apple TV


	Cincinnati		Chivas Guadalajara

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.4	2.2	Watch
	1.82	3.5	3.5
	1.82	3.7	3.9
	3.29	3.4	2.22
	1.92	3.68	3.72	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.39 ↑ (2.01)	3.54 ↓ (3.75)	3.11 ↓ (3.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cincinnati
40.9%

Draw
27.6%

Chivas Guadalajara
31.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.1%

25.2%

27.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.7%

24.9%

27.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cincinnati has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Cincinnati's form might have worsened.

Chivas Guadalajara has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cincinnati than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cincinnati, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chivas Guadalajara than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	20%	20%

Cincinnati - Chivas Guadalajara Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Cincinnati will win (votes: 9 - 69.2%). Guadalajara will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cincinnati: 44.1% – 94.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Cincinnati (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Guadalajara (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2 - Cincinnati (4.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Guadalajara (1.63) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

DNB - Cincinnati (1.99) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Cincinnati (votes: 7 - 58.3%). Guadalajara (votes: 5 - 41.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Louro E. (G) 2. Powell A. 3. Flores G. 4. Hagglund N. 16. Hadebe T. 14. Smith B. 66. Echenique E. 27. Anunga T. 37. Jimenez S. 19. Chirila S. 35. Mboma K.	1. Rangel R. (G) 19. Campillo Del Campo D. 3. Sepulveda G. 21. Castillo J. 2. Mozo A. 17. Romo L. 28. Gonzalez F. 5. Gonzalez B. 31. Padilla Y. 10. Alvarez E. 34. Gonzalez A.
Substitutes
20. Bucha P. 18. Celentano R. (G) 43. Davila A. 29. Engel L. 10. Evander 85. Kamara K. 1. Kann A. (G) 21. Miazga M. 23. Orellano L. 12. Robinson M. 22. Valenzuela G. 91. Yedlin D.	25. Alvarado R. 11. Brizuela I. 26. Camberos H. 7. Cowell C. 30. Garcia E. (G) 24. Gomez M. 37. Ledezma R. 33. Martinez R. 18. Olivas Salcedo L. A. 9. Pulido A. 13. Whalley O. (G) 29. Wilke T.
Coaches
Noonan P.	Milito G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
25', 0 - 1, Alvarez E. (Pen),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Anunga T. ↓, Bucha P. ↑,
46', Echenique E. ↓, Valenzuela G. ↑,
56', Padilla Y. ↓, Camberos H. ↑,
57', 0 - 2, Gonzalez A. ⚽, Alvarez E. (A),
63', Gonzalez B. ↓, Cowell C. ↑,
63', Alvarez E. ↓, Gomez M. ↑,
65', Chirila S. ↓, Davila A. ↑,
67', 1 - 2, Davila A. ⚽, Powell A. (A),
68', Hadebe T. 🟨,
78', Gomez M. 🟨,
78', Hagglund N. ↓, Orellano L. ↑,
82', Gonzalez A. ↓, Wilke T. ↑,
83', Smith B. ↓, Evander ↑,
90+1', Wilke T. 🟨,

Preview

Cincinnati is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Guadalajara has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Guadalajara has had a series of home games.

In this match, Cincinnati is seen as the favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Cincinnati won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 2:2).

Including home match between the teams, Cincinnati won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Cincinnati
CONCACAF League Cup
03.08.25	Cincinnati - Juárez	2:3 penalties ✺
31.07.25	Monterrey - Cincinnati	2:3 ✺
MLS
26.07.25	Inter Miami - Cincinnati	0:0 ✺
19.07.25	Real Salt Lake - Cincinnati	0:1 ✺
16.07.25	Cincinnati - Inter Miami	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.7 LWTWW
- Chivas Guadalajara
CONCACAF League Cup
03.08.25	Chivas Guadalajara - Charlotte	3:2 penalties ✺
31.07.25	Chivas Guadalajara - New York Red Bulls	0:1 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
26.07.25	Chivas Guadalajara - Atlético San Luis	4:3 ✺
19.07.25	Club León - Chivas Guadalajara	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
27.06.25	Chivas Guadalajara - Santos Laguna	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WLWLT

Latest Head to Head

CONCACAF League Cup
27.07.23	Chivas Guadalajara - Cincinnati	3:1
Club Friendly
21.09.22	Cincinnati - Chivas Guadalajara	3:1

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