Match Info

MLS - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 8 November 2025, Saturday

Location: TQL Stadium (Cincinnati, OH)

Referee: Penso C. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	Amazon Prime Video
China	QQ Sports
Italy	Amazon Prime Video
Usa	MLS Season Pass
World	EA Sports FC


	Cincinnati		Columbus Crew

	1	X	2
	2.65	3.5	2.45	Watch
	2.72	3.55	2.48	Watch
	2.75	3.67	2.52
	2.34	3.69	2.77	Watch
	2.77	3.58	2.56	Watch
	2.3	3.55	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.59 ↑ (2.34)	3.59 ↓ (3.69)	2.57 ↓ (2.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cincinnati
36.7%

Draw
26.4%

Columbus Crew
36.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.3%

25.6%

34.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41%

25.2%

33.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cincinnati has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

Columbus Crew has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cincinnati than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Columbus Crew than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	0%	11.1%

Cincinnati - Columbus Crew Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Cincinnati will win (votes: 8 - 88.9%). Columbus will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cincinnati: 68.4% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Cincinnati (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Cincinnati (1.96) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Cincinnati (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
18. Celentano R. (G) 4. Hagglund N. 12. Robinson M. (C) 16. Hadebe T. 66. Echenique E. 20. Bucha P. 10. Evander 11. Gidi S. 29. Engel L. 8. Brenner 9. Denkey K.	28. Schulte P. (G) 2. Herrera A. 31. Moreira S. 18. Amundsen M. 27. Arfsten M. 25. Zawadzki S. 7. Chambost D. 6. Nagbe D. (C) 16. Habroune T. 10. Rossi D. 30. Picard H.
Substitutes
27. Anunga T. 3. Flores G. 26. Jabbari A. 85. Kamara K. 13. Louro E. (G) 5. Nwobodo O. 23. Orellano L. 2. Powell A. 22. Valenzuela G.	11. Aliyu I. 24. Bush E. (G) 4. Camacho R. 21. Cheberko Y. 8. Gazdag D. 26. Lappalainen L. 19. Russell-Rowe J. 48. Ruvalcaba C. 14. Sejdic A.
Coaches
Noonan P.	Nancy W.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
4', Amundsen M. 🟨,
10', Hagglund N. 🟨,
35', Habroune T. 🟨,
39', Habroune T. ↓, Russell-Rowe J. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
63', Engel L. ↓, Orellano L. ↑,
63', 0 - 1, Russell-Rowe J. ⚽, Herrera A. (A), Schulte P. (A2)
67', 1 - 1, Brenner ⚽, Hadebe T. (A), Evander (A2)
76', Denkey K. ↓, Jabbari A. ↑,
84', Herrera A. ↓, Lappalainen L. ↑,
86', 2 - 1, Brenner ⚽,
87', Brenner 🟨,
88', Brenner ↓, Nwobodo O. ↑,
88', Echenique E. ↓, Powell A. ↑,
90', Arfsten M. ↓, Aliyu I. ↑,
90', Chambost D. ↓, Gazdag D. ↑,
90', Amundsen M. ↓, Cheberko Y. ↑,

Preview

Series tied 1-1. 3rd leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cincinnati won 1.

Cincinnati is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Columbus has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Cincinnati: Kubo Y. (Red Card) Miazga M. (Leg Injury)

There will not play in Columbus: Abou Ali W. (Ankle Injury) Farsi M. (Pelvis Injury)

There are questionable in Cincinnati: Smith B. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Cincinnati won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 22:43. (average 1.1:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Cincinnati won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 15:21. (average 1.4:1.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Cincinnati
MLS
02.11.25	Columbus Crew - Cincinnati	4:0 ✺
27.10.25	Cincinnati - Columbus Crew	1:0 ✺
18.10.25	Cincinnati - CF Montréal	3:0 ✺
04.10.25	New York Red Bulls - Cincinnati	0:1 ✺
28.09.25	Cincinnati - Orlando City	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 LWWWT
- Columbus Crew
MLS
02.11.25	Columbus Crew - Cincinnati	4:0 ✺
27.10.25	Cincinnati - Columbus Crew	1:0 ✺
18.10.25	Columbus Crew - New York Red Bulls	3:1 ✺
04.10.25	Orlando City - Columbus Crew	1:1 ✺
27.09.25	Chicago Fire - Columbus Crew	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WLWTL

Latest Head to Head

MLS
02.11.25	Columbus Crew - Cincinnati	4:0
27.10.25	Cincinnati - Columbus Crew	1:0
12.07.25	Cincinnati - Columbus Crew	2:4
17.05.25	Columbus Crew - Cincinnati	1:1
14.09.24	Cincinnati - Columbus Crew	0:0
11.05.24	Columbus Crew - Cincinnati	1:2
02.12.23	Cincinnati - Columbus Crew	2:3 ET

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