Match Info

MLS

Date: 28 May 2025, Wednesday

Location: TQL Stadium (Cincinnati, OH)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	MLS Season Pass
World	EA Sports FC


	Cincinnati		FC Dallas

	1	X	2
	1.57	4.1	5.5	Watch
	1.66	4	4.6
	1.62	4.5	5	Watch
	1.6	4.38	5.44
	1.61	4.26	5.17	Watch
	1.67	4	4.75
	1.62	4.22	5.67	Watch
	1.6	4.5	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↓ (1.66)	4.25 ↑ (4.02)	5.14 ↑ (4.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cincinnati
59%

Draw
22.5%

FC Dallas
18.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.2%

23.6%

19.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58%

23.3%

18.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cincinnati has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

FC Dallas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cincinnati than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for FC Dallas than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.8%	9.1%	9.1%

Cincinnati - FC Dallas Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.75 - Dallas (1.98) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Cincinnati (1.19) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Cincinnati will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.03% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Cincinnati will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Cincinnati (votes: 6 - 75%). Dallas (votes: 2 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
18. Celentano R. (G) 91. Yedlin D. 3. Flores G. 12. Robinson M. (C) 2. Powell A. 23. Orellano L. 10. Evander 5. Nwobodo O. 20. Bucha P. 17. Sergio Santos 9. Denkey K.	1. Paes M. (G) 18. Moore S. 3. Urhoghide O. 25. Ibeagha S. 4. Farfan M. 77. Kamungo B. 17. Ramiro 11. Julio Santos A. A. 55. Kaick 10. Acosta L. (C) 9. Musa P.
Substitutes
27. Anunga T. 11. Baird C. 29. Engel L. 16. Hadebe T. 85. Kamara K. 13. Louro E. (G) 21. Miazga M. 14. Smith B. 22. Valenzuela G.	5. Abubakar L. 30. Collodi M. (G) 6. Delgado P. 23. Farrington L. 50. Garcia D. 32. Norris N. 16. Ntsabeleng T. 20. Pedrinho 21. Show
Coaches
Noonan P.	Rios R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
2', Powell A. 🟨,
8', Farfan M. 🟨,
30', 1 - 0, Bucha P. ⚽, Yedlin D. (A), Orellano L. (A2)
36', Urhoghide O. ↓, Abubakar L. ↑,
42', 2 - 0, Denkey K. (Pen),
44', Kaick 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 3)
46', Kamungo B. ↓, Pedrinho ↑,
50', 2 - 1, Musa P. ⚽, Moore S. (A),
62', Musa P. 🟨,
64', Sergio Santos ↓, Kamara K. ↑,
65', Kaick ↓, Delgado P. ↑,
68', 2 - 2, Julio Santos A. A. ⚽, Pedrinho (A),
73', Bucha P. ↓, Valenzuela G. ↑,
73', Orellano L. ↓, Engel L. ↑,
73', Powell A. ↓, Hadebe T. ↑,
78', Hadebe T. 🟨,
83', Julio Santos A. A. ↓, Farrington L. ↑,
83', Yedlin D. ↓, Baird C. ↑,
86', 3 - 2, Valenzuela G. ⚽,
90+2', 3 - 3, Ibeagha S. ⚽, Delgado P. (A), Ramiro (A2)
90+4', Baird C. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 11).

In recent matches, Cincinnati has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Dallas is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Dallas may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Cincinnati has had a series of away games.

In this match, Cincinnati is the team to beat.

There will not play in Dallas: Geovane Jesus (Knee Injury) Leo Chu (Knee Injury) Lletget S. (Leg Injury)

There are questionable in Cincinnati: Kubo Y. (Leg Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Cincinnati won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Cincinnati
MLS
25.05.25	Atlanta United - Cincinnati	4:2 ✺
17.05.25	Columbus Crew - Cincinnati	1:1 ✺
14.05.25	Toronto FC - Cincinnati	0:1 ✺
10.05.25	Cincinnati - Austin FC	2:1 ✺
04.05.25	New York City - Cincinnati	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LTWWL
- FC Dallas
MLS
24.05.25	Seattle Sounders - FC Dallas	1:0 ✺
US Open Cup
21.05.25	New York Red Bulls - FC Dallas	3:2 penalties ✺
MLS
17.05.25	FC Dallas - Houston Dynamo	0:2 ✺
10.05.25	FC Dallas - Real Salt Lake	1:1 ✺
US Open Cup
07.05.25	FC Dallas - AV Alta	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 LLLTW

Latest Head to Head

MLS
29.06.24	FC Dallas - Cincinnati	0:1
31.08.19	FC Dallas - Cincinnati	3:1

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