Match Info

MLS

Date: 10 May 2025, Saturday

Location: TQL Stadium (Cincinnati, OH)

Referee: Penso T. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	MLS Season Pass


	Cincinnati		Austin FC

	1	X	2
	1.61	4.1	4.75	Watch
	1.78	3.75	4.1
	1.66	4.2	5	Watch
	1.68	4.15	5.09
	1.65	4.1	5.02	Watch
	1.75	3.8	4.33
	1.7	4.22	4.89	Watch
	1.66	4.2	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↓ (2.09)	4.07 ↑ (3.71)	4.77 ↑ (3.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cincinnati
56.6%

Draw
23.5%

Austin FC
20%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.5%

25.7%

28.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.4%

24.7%

27.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cincinnati has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Cincinnati's performance.

Austin FC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Austin FC might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cincinnati than the current prediction. (-9.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Cincinnati that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Austin FC than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Austin FC could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92%	4%	4%

Cincinnati - Austin FC Predictions

Users Predictions: Cincinnati will win (23 of 25 users predict this - 92%).
Confidence interval (95%): 81.37% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Cincinnati will win (11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
18. Celentano R. (G) 23. Orellano L. 21. Miazga M. 12. Robinson M. 4. Hagglund N. 29. Engel L. 10. Evander 20. Bucha P. 7. Kubo Y. 17. Sergio Santos 9. Denkey K.	1. Stuver B. (G) 17. Gallagher J. 5. Svatok O. 29. Guilherme Biro 4. Hines-Ike B. 23. Kolmanic Z. 33. Wolff O. 6. Sanchez I. 14. Sabovic B. 10. Uzuni M. 9. Vazquez B.
Substitutes
27. Anunga T. 11. Baird C. 3. Flores G. 16. Hadebe T. 13. Louro E. (G) 2. Powell A. 14. Smith B. 22. Valenzuela G. 91. Yedlin D.	11. Bukari O. 18. Cascante J. 30. Cleveland S. (G) 20. Dubersarsky N. 19. Fodrey C. 7. Obrian J. 21. Rubio D. 2. Thomas R. 38. Torres E.
Coaches
Noonan P.	Estevez N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Evander ⚽,
35', Denkey K. 🟨,
45', Miazga M. ↓, Hadebe T. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
48', 1 - 1, Vazquez B. (Pen),
67', Kubo Y. ↓, Anunga T. ↑,
68', Sergio Santos ↓, Valenzuela G. ↑,
69', Sabovic B. 🟨,
73', Vazquez B. ↓, Fodrey C. ↑,
74', Sanchez I. ↓, Dubersarsky N. ↑,
76', 2 - 1, Valenzuela G. ⚽, Evander (A), Engel L. (A2)
81', Uzuni M. ↓, Bukari O. ↑,
81', Sabovic B. ↓, Obrian J. ↑,
83', Orellano L. ↓, Yedlin D. ↑,
87', Kolmanic Z. ↓, Rubio D. ↑,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

Cincinnati is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Austin has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Cincinnati may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Cincinnati is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Cincinnati: Kann A. (Hip Injury)

There will not play in Austin: Desler M. (Hamstring Injury) Pereira D. (Hip Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Cincinnati won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Cincinnati
MLS
04.05.25	New York City - Cincinnati	1:0 ✺
26.04.25	Cincinnati - Sporting Kansas City	2:1 ✺
19.04.25	Chicago Fire - Cincinnati	2:3 ✺
12.04.25	DC United - Cincinnati	0:1 ✺
05.04.25	Cincinnati - New England Revolution	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 LWWWW
- Austin FC
US Open Cup
07.05.25	Austin FC - El Paso Locomotive	3:2 ✺
MLS
03.05.25	Austin FC - Minnesota United	0:3 ✺
26.04.25	Houston Dynamo - Austin FC	2:0 ✺
19.04.25	Austin FC - Los Angeles Galaxy	1:0 ✺
12.04.25	Vancouver Whitecaps - Austin FC	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

MLS
26.02.22	Austin FC - Cincinnati	5:0

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