Match Info

ITALY: SERIE D - GROUP E - ROUND 27

Date: 12 March 2023, Sunday


	Città di Castello		Poggibonsi

	1	X	2
	2.8	3.1	2.25
	2.78	3.04	2.4
	2.8	3	2.44
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.79 ↓ (3.25)	3.05 ↓ (3.31)	2.36 ↑ (1.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 10%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Città di Castello
32.3%

Draw
29.6%

Poggibonsi
38.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.7%

27.2%

45.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.3%

26.6%

44.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Città di Castello has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

Poggibonsi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Poggibonsi might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Città di Castello than the current prediction. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Poggibonsi than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Poggibonsi could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and outsider (ranked 14 in the zone Serie D ~ Group E (Play Out) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D ~ Group E (Play Offs)).

Città di Castello has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Poggibonsi is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Poggibonsi will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Città di Castello won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SSD Group Città di Castello
Italian Serie D - Group E
05.03.23	Arezzo - Città di Castello	1:0 ✺
26.02.23	Città di Castello - Tau Altopascio	1:3 ✺
19.02.23	Livorno - Città di Castello	3:0 ✺
11.02.23	Città di Castello - Ostia Mare	0:1 ✺
05.02.23	Mobilieri Ponsacco - Città di Castello	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLLLT
- Poggibonsi
Italian Serie D - Group E
05.03.23	Poggibonsi - Terranuova Traiana	2:3 ✺
26.02.23	Ghivizzano Borgo a Mozzano - Poggibonsi	4:2 ✺
19.02.23	Poggibonsi - SanGiovanniValdarno	1:3 ✺
12.02.23	Flaminia Civita Castellana - Poggibonsi	0:3 ✺
05.02.23	Poggibonsi - Follonica Gavorrano	4:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group E
06.11.22	Poggibonsi - Città di Castello	5:0
24.04.16	Poggibonsi - Città di Castello	2:1

Città di Castello - Poggibonsi: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide