Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 10 - Round 23

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday


	Ciudad de Lucena		Ceuta B

	1	X	2
	1.47	3.75	6.1
	1.47	3.83	6.96
	1.44	3.5	7
	1.44	3.72	7.23
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.46 ↑ (1.43)	3.7 ↓ (3.9)	6.82 ↓ (6.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ciudad de Lucena
62.2%

Draw
24.5%

Ceuta B
13.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.5%

23.3%

13.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.1%

22%

12.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ciudad de Lucena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

The chances for Ceuta B have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ciudad de Lucena than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ceuta B than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Ciudad de Lucena - Ceuta B Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
31', 1 - 0, Cantarino Abelleira D. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
87', 2 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ciudad de Lucena won 1.

Recent performances by Ciudad de Lucena have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Ceuta B is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Recently, Ciudad de Lucena has had a series of away games.

Recently, Ceuta B has had a series of home games.

In this match, Ciudad de Lucena is the obvious favorite.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Ciudad de Lucena won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:9. (average 1.1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Ciudad de Lucena won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:6. (average 1.3:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
16	Ceuta B	5	1	1	3	3:10	-7	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Ciudad de Lucena
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 10
15.02.26	Córdoba B - Ciudad de Lucena	0:4 ✺
01.02.26	Conil - Ciudad de Lucena	3:2 ✺
25.01.26	Ciudad de Lucena - Atlético Central	2:1 ✺
18.01.26	Utrera - Ciudad de Lucena	2:1 ✺
11.01.26	Dos Hermanas - Ciudad de Lucena	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WLWLW
- Ceuta B
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 10
15.02.26	Ceuta B - Bollullos	1:1 ✺
31.01.26	Ceuta B - Linense	0:0 ✺
25.01.26	Atlético Onubense - Ceuta B	2:0 ✺
17.01.26	Ceuta B - Pozoblanco	0:1 ✺
10.01.26	Ceuta B - San Roque de Lepe	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 TTLLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 10
12.10.25	Ceuta B - Ciudad de Lucena	1:1
16.11.24	Ceuta B - Ciudad de Lucena	0:0
26.05.24	Ciudad de Lucena - Ceuta B	0:4
19.05.24	Ceuta B - Ciudad de Lucena	1:1
23.12.23	Ciudad de Lucena - Ceuta B	1:0
23.04.23	Ciudad de Lucena - Ceuta B	1:0
17.12.22	Ceuta B - Ciudad de Lucena	1:1

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