Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 10 - Round 20

Date: 1 February 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	WebDirecto


	Conil		Ciudad de Lucena

	1	X	2
	3.15	3	2.15
	3.48	3.1	2.11
	1.14	7.99	12.93	Watch
	3.2	3	2.1
	3.1	3.36	2.23
	3.5	3.1	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.93 ↓ (3.35)	3.93 ↑ (3.3)	3.93 ↑ (2.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Conil
40.1%

Draw
29.9%

Ciudad de Lucena
29.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.2%

27.6%

45.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.8%

27.2%

45.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Conil has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Conil's performance.

Ciudad de Lucena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ciudad de Lucena might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Conil than the current prediction. (-13.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Conil that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ciudad de Lucena than the current prediction. (+15.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ciudad de Lucena could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Conil - Ciudad de Lucena Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
25', 1 - 0, ⚽,
38', 2 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
60', 2 - 1, ⚽,
71', 🟥,
87', 2 - 2, ⚽,
90+4', 3 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 12 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 10 (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Conil won 0.

Conil has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ciudad de Lucena is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Ciudad de Lucena might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Conil won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 8 matches, and goals 5:18. (average 0.5:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Conil won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:3. (average 0.5:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Conil	5	2	0	3	4:7	-3	6

Last Results with these Odds

Conil - the odds 3.35 are the expected chance of winning is 27.22%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Conil CF
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 10
25.01.26	Bollullos - Conil	1:1 ✺
18.01.26	Conil - Sevilla C	2:0 ✺
11.01.26	Conil - Linense	0:2 ✺
04.01.26	Atlético Onubense - Conil	2:2 ✺
20.12.25	Conil - Pozoblanco	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 TWLTT
- CD Ciudad de Lucena
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 10
25.01.26	Ciudad de Lucena - Atlético Central	2:1 ✺
18.01.26	Utrera - Ciudad de Lucena	2:1 ✺
11.01.26	Dos Hermanas - Ciudad de Lucena	2:4 ✺
04.01.26	Ciudad de Lucena - Cadiz CF B	3:0 ✺
20.12.25	Tomares - Ciudad de Lucena	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 10
21.09.25	Ciudad de Lucena - Conil	4:1
22.03.25	Conil - Ciudad de Lucena	1:2
10.11.24	Ciudad de Lucena - Conil	2:0
28.01.24	Ciudad de Lucena - Conil	2:0
17.09.23	Conil - Ciudad de Lucena	0:1
12.03.23	Ciudad de Lucena - Conil	1:0
20.11.22	Conil - Ciudad de Lucena	1:0

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