Match Info

SPAIN: TERCERA RFEF - GROUP 13 - ROUND 25

Date: 17 March 2024, Sunday


	Ciudad de Murcia		Lorca Deportiva

	1	X	2
	4.33	3.25	1.72
	4.74	3.01	1.77
	4.74	3.01	1.78
	4.68	3.25	1.74
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.62 ↓ (4.83)	3.13 ↓ (3.75)	1.75 ↑ (1.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ciudad de Murcia
19.6%

Draw
28.9%

Lorca Deportiva
51.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.8%

24.2%

57%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.4%

23.7%

58.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ciudad de Murcia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Lorca Deportiva has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lorca Deportiva might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ciudad de Murcia than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorca Deportiva than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lorca Deportiva could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
88', Martinez F. ⚽,

Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 13 (Play Offs: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ciudad de Murcia won 1.

Ciudad de Murcia has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Lorca Deportiva is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Ciudad de Murcia could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Lorca Deportiva is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Lorca Deportiva to win the game is with odds 1.59.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Ciudad de Murcia won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 5-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Ciudad de Murcia won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CAP Ciudad de Murcia
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 13
10.03.24	UCAM Murcia B - Ciudad de Murcia	1:0 ✺
03.03.24	Ciudad de Murcia - Algar	1:2 ✺
25.02.24	Plus Ultra - Ciudad de Murcia	2:1 ✺
18.02.24	Ciudad de Murcia - Bullense	0:1 ✺
10.02.24	Alcantarilla - Ciudad de Murcia	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- CF Lorca Deportiva
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 13
09.03.24	Lorca Deportiva - Unión Molinense	3:1 ✺
03.03.24	Caravaca - Lorca Deportiva	3:0 ✺
24.02.24	Lorca Deportiva - Real Murcia B	1:2 ✺
17.02.24	Lorca Deportiva - UCAM Murcia B	2:1 ✺
10.02.24	Algar - Lorca Deportiva	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 13
28.10.23	Lorca Deportiva - Ciudad de Murcia	1:1
05.03.23	Lorca Deportiva - Ciudad de Murcia	2:1
06.11.22	Ciudad de Murcia - Lorca Deportiva	0:2
06.02.22	Ciudad de Murcia - Lorca Deportiva	3:1
05.05.19	Ciudad de Murcia - Lorca Deportiva	0:3
16.12.18	Lorca Deportiva - Ciudad de Murcia	1:0

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