Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 25

Date: 2 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Tres de Febrero (Jose Ingenieros)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	TyC Sports Play


	Club Almagro		Arsenal Sarandí

	1	X	2
	2.1	2.8	4.1	Watch
	2.25	2.85	3.25
	2.05	2.85	3.85	Watch
	2.14	3	4.21
	2.53	2.74	3.25	Watch
	2.2	2.88	3.5
	2.16	2.91	3.62
	1.95	3.25	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.17 ↑ (1.95)	2.91 ↓ (3.25)	3.72 ↓ (4)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Club Almagro
42.9%

Draw
32%

Arsenal Sarandí
25%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.9%

28.7%

23.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49%

28.1%

22.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Club Almagro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Arsenal Sarandí has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Club Almagro than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Club Almagro, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arsenal Sarandí than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	71.4%	14.3%

Club Almagro - Arsenal Sarandí Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Almagro will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Arsenal Sarandí will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 71.4%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gonzalez E. (G) 4. Garcia M. 2. Vitale J. 6. Yegros U. 3. Rios R. 8. Castro T. 5. Jerez Silva L. 11. Puca D. 10. Baldunciel L. 7. Orlando J. 9. Dornell T.	1. Pourtau J. (G) 4. Amaya A. 2. Roselli N. 6. Cocca M. 3. Serrano V. 8. Lucero M. 5. Trombini M. 10. Fernandez E. 11. Batista A. 7. Gonzalez T. 9. Sabatini I.
Substitutes
18. Gonzalez A. 15. Lattanzio C. 12. Limousin C. (G) 19. Lopez T. 20. Luayza M. 14. Punet L. 16. Quiroga F. 13. Rimbelitti A. 17. Rodriguez A.	18. Bordagaray F. 16. Duarte L. 17. Juarez A. 19. Klusener G. 12. Mekbel F. (G) 14. Payes A. 15. Purita E. 20. Sayago D. 13. Vila J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
22', 🟨,
39', 0 - 1, Batista A. ⚽,
44', 1 - 1, Puca D. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
55', Jerez Silva L. 🟨,
61', Orlando J. ↓, Gonzalez A. ↑,
61', Amaya A. ↓, Purita E. ↑,
72', Puca D. ↓, Lopez T. ↑,
72', Lucero M. ↓, Vila J. ↑,
72', Batista A. ↓, Sayago D. ↑,
72', 2 - 1, Vitale J. ⚽,
78', Trombini M. ↓, Klusener G. ↑,
78', Sabatini I. ↓, Bordagaray F. ↑,
78', Serrano V. 🟨,
84', Dornell T. ↓, Rodriguez A. ↑,
84', Baldunciel L. ↓, Punet L. ↑,
84', 🟨,
90+4', 3 - 1, Rodriguez A. ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 13 and 18 in the zone Relegation).

Almagro has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Arsenal Sarandí has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Almagro could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Almagro won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Club Almagro
Argentinian Primera Nacional
26.07.25	All Boys - Club Almagro	1:0 ✺
19.07.25	Club Almagro - Alvarado	0:0 ✺
13.07.25	Deportivo Madryn - Club Almagro	2:1 ✺
05.07.25	Club Almagro - Deportivo Maipú	0:1 ✺
29.06.25	Gimnasia y Tiro - Club Almagro	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LTLLL
- Arsenal Sarandí
Argentinian Primera Nacional
27.07.25	Arsenal Sarandí - San Miguel	5:2 ✺
19.07.25	Quilmes - Arsenal Sarandí	3:1 ✺
13.07.25	Arsenal Sarandí - Racing de Córdoba	2:1 ✺
06.07.25	Atlanta Buenos Aires - Arsenal Sarandí	4:0 ✺
28.06.25	Arsenal Sarandí - Colegiales	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
30.03.25	Arsenal Sarandí - Club Almagro	2:2
11.03.19	Arsenal Sarandí - Club Almagro	0:0

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