Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 23

Date: 19 July 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Tres de Febrero (Jose Ingenieros)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	TyC Sports Play


	Club Almagro		Alvarado

	1	X	2
	2.05	2.88	3.9	Watch
	1.9	2.85	4.5
	1.92	2.92	4.45	Watch
	2.16	2.71	4.58
	2.06	2.84	4.30	Watch
	1.91	2.88	4.5
	1.94	2.84	4.65
	1.86	3.25	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↑ (1.86)	2.9 ↓ (3.25)	4.41 ↑ (4.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Club Almagro
47%

Draw
32%

Alvarado
21%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.1%

28.7%

21.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.5%

27.9%

20.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Club Almagro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Alvarado has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Club Almagro than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alvarado than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	62.5%	12.5%

Club Almagro - Alvarado Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Almagro will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Alvarado will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 62.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 29% – 96%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gonzalez E. (G) 4. Garcia M. 6. Yegros U. 5. Rios R. 3. Pinto M. 11. Gonzalez A. . Jerez Silva L. 8. Chaves A. 10. Lattanzio C. 7. Baldunciel L. 9. Orlando J.	1. Gomez Riga E. F. (G) 2. Silva K. 3. Aleo A. 4. Ardiles F. 5. Blasi B. 6. Irazoque A. 7. Martinez E. 8. Mansilla M. 10. Bolivar A. 11. Gobetto J. (C) 9. Bolzicco T.
Coaches
Cordon J. L.	Vazquez M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
16', Bolzicco T. 🟨,
21', Ardiles F. 🟨,
37', Garcia M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
73', 🟨,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 10 and 17 in the zone Relegation).

Recent form of Almagro has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Alvarado has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Almagro may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Almagro is considered a favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Almagro won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 0.8:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Almagro won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1. (average 1:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Club Almagro
Argentinian Primera Nacional
13.07.25	Deportivo Madryn - Club Almagro	2:1 ✺
05.07.25	Club Almagro - Deportivo Maipú	0:1 ✺
29.06.25	Gimnasia y Tiro - Club Almagro	1:0 ✺
21.06.25	Club Almagro - Tristán Suárez	0:1 ✺
14.06.25	San Martín de Tucumán - Club Almagro	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 LLLLT
- CA Alvarado
Argentinian Primera Nacional
13.07.25	Alvarado - San Miguel	0:0 ✺
29.06.25	Alvarado - Racing de Córdoba	0:1 ✺
22.06.25	Atlanta Buenos Aires - Alvarado	0:2 ✺
15.06.25	Alvarado - Colegiales	1:0 ✺
06.06.25	Los Andes - Alvarado	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.5 TLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
16.03.25	Alvarado - Club Almagro	1:1
24.09.23	Club Almagro - Alvarado	1:1
14.05.23	Alvarado - Club Almagro	0:0
28.08.22	Club Almagro - Alvarado	1:0

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