Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 9

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Tres de Febrero (Jose Ingenieros)


	Club Almagro		Patronato Parana

	1	X	2
	2.4	2.7	3.4	Watch
	2.35	2.62	3.5	Watch
	2.54	2.7	3.5
	2.38	2.62	3.84	Watch
	2.4	2.6	3.4
	2.44	2.74	3.39	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.42 ↑ (2.16)	2.66 ↓ (2.8)	3.51 ↓ (3.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Club Almagro
38.5%

Draw
35%

Patronato Parana
26.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.2%

33.3%

23.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44%

32.7%

23.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Club Almagro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Patronato Parana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Club Almagro than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Club Almagro, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Patronato Parana than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	25%	0%

Club Almagro - Patronato Parana Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Almagro will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Zozaya J. P. (G) 6. Marco F. 5. Marchioni J. 4. Chamorro S. 2. Cortave M. (C) 3. Asis G. 10. Bustamante F. 7. Palacio P. 8. Macies T. 11. Ubeda S. 9. Benegas M.	1. Sosa A. (G) 4. Rueda W. 2. Diaz F. N. 3. Moreyra F. 6. Meritello F. 8. Salas J. 5. Bravo F. 10. Cortes B. 11. Pereyra V. L. 9. Attis T. 7. Soldano F.
Substitutes
13. Barbieri G. 15. Blanco P. 19. Canale T. 20. Chavez A. 12. Ciancaglini M. 17. Fernandes J. 16. Flores J. 18. Orlando J. 14. Sandoval L.	16. Barinaga J. P. 14. Enrique M. 13. Genez N. 18. Miro A. 15. Picco A. 19. Reynaga R. 12. Rivasseau F. (G) 20. Rivero H. 17. Villarreal V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
28', Rueda W. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Ubeda S. ↓, Chavez A. ↑,
47', 0 - 1, Attis T. ⚽, Salas J. (A),
54', Cortave M. 🟨,
60', Bravo F. 🟨,
72', Palacio P. 🟨,
76', Attis T. ↓, Reynaga R. ↑,
76', Pereyra V. L. ↓, Miro A. ↑,
77', Sosa A. 🟨,
79', Bravo F. 🟨,
80', Asis G. ↓, Orlando J. ↑,
81', Soldano F. ↓, Picco A. ↑,
86', Miro A. 🟨,
86', Palacio P. ↓, Fernandes J. ↑,
90+3', Salas J. ↓, Genez N. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 11 and 17 in the zone Relegation).

Almagro has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Patronato is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Almagro is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Almagro won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 1:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Almagro won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 2:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Patronato Parana - the odds 3.98 are the expected chance of winning is 23.45%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Club Almagro
Argentinian Primera Nacional
04.04.26	Colegiales - Club Almagro	1:0 ✺
28.03.26	Club Almagro - Deportivo Morón	2:0 ✺
21.03.26	Club Almagro - Quilmes	1:0 ✺
15.03.26	Ferrocarril Midland - Club Almagro	1:1 ✺
27.02.26	Gimnasia y Tiro - Club Almagro	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 LWWTL
- Patronato Parana
Argentinian Primera Nacional
05.04.26	Gimnasia Jujuy - Patronato Parana	2:0 ✺
29.03.26	Patronato Parana - Colón	0:2 ✺
22.03.26	Patronato Parana - Colegiales	2:0 ✺
14.03.26	Quilmes - Patronato Parana	3:0 ✺
02.03.26	Atlanta Buenos Aires - Patronato Parana	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
28.09.25	Patronato Parana - Club Almagro	0:0
25.05.25	Club Almagro - Patronato Parana	2:1
07.10.23	Club Almagro - Patronato Parana	2:1
28.05.23	Patronato Parana - Club Almagro	1:0

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