Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 5

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Centenario Ciudad de Quilmes (Quilmes)


	Quilmes		Patronato Parana

	1	X	2
	2.2	2.7	3.7	Watch
	2.25	2.78	3.45
	2.26	2.8	3.99
	2.39	2.68	3.67	Watch
	2.25	2.63	3.6
	2.26	2.67	3.54	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.27 ↑ (2.23)	2.71 ↓ (2.72)	3.66 ↑ (3.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Quilmes
40.7%

Draw
34.1%

Patronato Parana
25.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41%

33.6%

25.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Quilmes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Patronato Parana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	66.7%	11.1%

Quilmes - Patronato Parana Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Quilmes will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Patronato will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 66.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Patronato (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Patronato (2.34) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Patronato (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Marinelli G. (C) 4. Vallejos M. 2. Kippes A. 6. Recalde L. 3. Ortega T. 8. Martinez R. 5. Bolivar A. 10. Luna R. 11. Vera U. 7. Lavezzi A. 9. Dominguez A.	1. Sosa A. (C) 4. Salas J. 2. Meritello F. 3. Moreyra F. 6. Evangelista F. 8. Barinaga J. P. 5. Bravo F. 10. Araujo A. 11. Heredia F. 7. Soldano F. 9. Rivero H.
Substitutes
20. Barreto J. 18. Batista A. 14. Bindella A. 17. Fernandez M. 12. Glellel E. (G) 16. Paredes M. 13. Rasso I. 19. Spetale A. 15. Yangali J.	17. Enrique M. 18. Miro A. 12. Peralta R. (G) 16. Pereyra V. L. 13. Piccioni S. 15. Picco A. 19. Reynaga R. 14. Rueda W. 20. Strey

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Lavezzi A. ⚽, Martinez R. (A),
15', Salas J. 🟨,
26', Ortega T. 🟨,
30', Bolivar A. 🟨,
35', 2 - 0, Dominguez A. ⚽, Lavezzi A. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Heredia F. ↓, Miro A. ↑,
46', Salas J. ↓, Rueda W. ↑,
57', Rivero H. ↓, Reynaga R. ↑,
57', Barinaga J. P. ↓, Pereyra V. L. ↑,
67', Dominguez A. ↓, Barreto J. ↑,
68', Luna R. ↓, Yangali J. ↑,
69', Kippes A. 🟨,
71', Vera U. 🟨,
74', 3 - 0, Martinez R. ⚽, Barreto J. (A),
74', Martinez R. 🟨,
77', Martinez R. ↓, Batista A. ↑,
77', Bolivar A. ↓, Paredes M. ↑,
79', Bravo F. 🟨,
83', Vera U. ↓, Fernandez M. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Quilmes won 0.

Quilmes will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Quilmes won 0 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:8. (average 1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Quilmes won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:6. (average 1.3:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Quilmes - the odds 2.23 are the expected chance of winning is 40.96%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Quilmes AC
Argentinian Primera Nacional
01.03.26	Gimnasia Jujuy - Quilmes	1:0 ✺
21.02.26	Quilmes - Ferrocarril Midland	0:0 ✺
16.02.26	Atlanta Buenos Aires - Quilmes	1:0 ✺
04.10.25	Quilmes - Tristán Suárez	0:1 ✺
28.09.25	San Martín de Tucumán - Quilmes	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LTLLT
- Patronato Parana
Argentinian Primera Nacional
02.03.26	Atlanta Buenos Aires - Patronato Parana	0:0 ✺
21.02.26	Patronato Parana - Gimnasia y Tiro	1:2 ✺
15.02.26	San Martín de Tucumán - Patronato Parana	0:0 ✺
12.10.25	Estudiantes de Río Cuarto - Patronato Parana	2:1 ✺
04.10.25	Ferro Carril Oeste - Patronato Parana	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 TLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
14.09.25	Patronato Parana - Quilmes	1:0
10.05.25	Quilmes - Patronato Parana	1:1
08.09.24	Patronato Parana - Quilmes	1:1
22.04.24	Quilmes - Patronato Parana	2:2
Argentinian Liga Profesional
05.06.17	Quilmes - Patronato Parana	0:1
22.02.16	Quilmes - Patronato Parana	2:2

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