Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 13

Date: 3 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Tres de Febrero (Jose Ingenieros)

Referee: Viola F. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	TyC Sports Play


	Club Almagro		San Miguel

	1	X	2
	3.6	2.9	2.3	Watch
	3.1	2.85	2.37
	3.3	2.9	2.31	Watch
	3.57	2.94	2.33
	3.51	2.87	2.32	Watch
	3.1	2.8	2.4
	3.47	2.64	2.41
	3.3	2.9	2.31
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.37 ↑ (2.63)	2.85 ↓ (3.05)	2.34 ↓ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Club Almagro
27.6%

Draw
32.7%

San Miguel
39.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.7%

30.8%

33.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.8%

32.7%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Club Almagro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Club Almagro's form might have worsened.

San Miguel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting San Miguel's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Club Almagro than the current prediction. (+10.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Club Almagro, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for San Miguel than the current prediction. (-8.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for San Miguel, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	55.6%	22.2%

Club Almagro - San Miguel Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Almagro will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). San Miguel will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 55.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Almagro (votes: 2 - 66.7%). San Miguel (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gonzalez E. (G) 4. Garcia M. 2. Vitale J. 6. Yegros U. 3. Pinto M. 8. Luayza M. 5. Jerez Silva L. 9. Cucchi P. 7. Dornell T. 10. Lattanzio C. 11. Gonzalez A.	1. Sappa D. (G) 4. D. Renteria 2. Kippes A. (C) 6. Cardozo F. 3. Grance I. 8. Rojas M. 5. Juarez J. 7. Parisi L. 10. Aleman B. 9. Nasta B. 11. Lavezzi A.
Substitutes
16. Baldunciel L. 12. Barrionuevo L. (G) 15. Castro T. 17. Diosquez N. 14. Gamba L. 19. Orlando J. 18. Quiroga F. 13. Rios R. 20. Rodriguez A.	17. Almada A. 15. Ferrero J. 14. Ihitz N. 16. Mosca C. 13. Parnisari E. 12. Reynoso M. (G) 18. Salto C. 20. Sosa D. 19. Turraca G.
Coaches
Cordon J. L.	Coleoni G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Cucchi P. ⚽, Dornell T. (A),
17', Jerez Silva L. 🟨,
18', Vitale J. 🟨,
25', Cardozo F. 🟨,
34', Dornell T. 🟨,
37', Aleman B. 🟨,
39', Luayza M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Cucchi P. ↓, Orlando J. ↑,
46', Parisi L. ↓, Sosa D. ↑,
46', D. Renteria ↓, Parnisari E. ↑,
56', Luayza M. ↓, Castro T. ↑,
56', Vitale J. ↓, Rios R. ↑,
63', Aleman B. ↓, Mosca C. ↑,
68', Lattanzio C. ↓, Diosquez N. ↑,
71', Rojas M. ↓, Almada A. ↑,
75', Ferrero J. 🟨,
81', Dornell T. ↓, Quiroga F. ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 14 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Club Almagro
Argentinian Primera Nacional
26.04.25	Quilmes - Club Almagro	0:1 ✺
19.04.25	Club Almagro - Racing de Córdoba	1:1 ✺
14.04.25	Atlanta Buenos Aires - Club Almagro	1:0 ✺
06.04.25	Club Almagro - Colegiales	0:0 ✺
30.03.25	Arsenal Sarandí - Club Almagro	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.8 WTLTT
- CA San Miguel
Argentinian Primera Nacional
26.04.25	San Miguel - Los Andes	1:0 ✺
19.04.25	San Miguel - Quilmes	2:2 ✺
13.04.25	Racing de Córdoba - San Miguel	1:1 ✺
05.04.25	San Miguel - Atlanta Buenos Aires	0:0 ✺
30.03.25	Colegiales - San Miguel	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WTTTT

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