Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 11

Date: 19 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Malvinas Argentinas (Buenos Aires)

Referee: Possi Y. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports, TyC Sports Play
South-america	DGO Latin America
Uruguay	DSports 1
Venezuela	DSports 1


	San Miguel		Quilmes

	1	X	2
	2.15	3	3.7	Watch
	2.05	2.85	3.9
	2.21	2.8	3.75	Watch
	2.29	2.6	4.35
	2.21	2.67	4.18	Watch
	2.05	2.88	4
	2.15	3	3.7	Watch
	2.21	2.8	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.17 ↑ (1.97)	2.83 ↓ (3.25)	3.92 ↓ (3.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

San Miguel
43.1%

Draw
33%

Quilmes
23.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.5%

28.8%

23.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.2%

29.8%

22.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

San Miguel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Quilmes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Miguel than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for San Miguel, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Quilmes than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	40%	40%

San Miguel - Quilmes Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. San Miguel will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Quilmes will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - San Miguel (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. San Miguel (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sappa D. (G) 4. Juarez J. 2. Kippes A. 6. Cardozo F. 3. Grance I. 8. Sena F. 5. Rojas M. 11. Mosca C. 10. Sosa D. 7. Dening E. 9. Lavezzi A.	1. Glellel E. (G) 4. Torrent F. 2. Aranda G. 6. Padilla M. 3. Bindella A. 8. Enrique M. 5. Ramirez I. (C) 10. Mino M. 11. Allende L. 7. Belinetz O. 9. Herrera E.
Substitutes
20. Aleman B. 14. D. Renteria 18. Erbes C. 15. Ferrero J. 13. Ihitz N. 12. Lungarzo J. (G) 19. Nasta B. 17. Parisi L. 16. Parnisari E.	20. Capano J. 12. Gagliardo M. (G) 14. Juarez M. 16. Kalinski E. 19. Machado C. 13. Perez F. 15. Postigo J. 18. Roseti M. 17. Schultz E.
Coaches
Battaglia S.	Rondina S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
12', 1 - 0, Grance I. ⚽, Sosa D. (A),
17', Lavezzi A. 🟨,
45', 2 - 0, Kippes A. ⚽,
45+2', 2 - 1, Herrera E. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
60', Enrique M. ↓, Kalinski E. ↑,
60', Mino M. ↓, Schultz E. ↑,
60', Herrera E. ↓, Machado C. ↑,
67', Sena F. 🟨,
69', Sena F. ↓, D. Renteria ↑,
69', Sosa D. ↓, Nasta B. ↑,
77', Bindella A. ↓, Capano J. ↑,
77', Mosca C. ↓, Ihitz N. ↑,
83', 2 - 2, Capano J. ⚽,
86', Dening E. ↓, Ferrero J. ↑,
86', Lavezzi A. ↓, Parisi L. ↑,
89', Belinetz O. ↓, Postigo J. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy watching a meeting between a mid-table team and a leading team (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

Recent matches San Miguel is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Quilmes is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

In this match San Miguel is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches San Miguel won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2:1 (average 1:0.5).

Including matches at home between the teams San Miguel won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA San Miguel
Argentinian Primera Nacional
13.04.25	Racing de Córdoba - San Miguel	1:1 ✺
05.04.25	San Miguel - Atlanta Buenos Aires	0:0 ✺
30.03.25	Colegiales - San Miguel	0:0 ✺
22.03.25	San Miguel - Arsenal Sarandí	1:1 ✺
14.03.25	All Boys - San Miguel	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 TTTTL
- Quilmes AC
Argentinian Primera Nacional
13.04.25	Quilmes - Los Andes	2:0 ✺
07.04.25	Quilmes - Racing de Córdoba	3:0 ✺
31.03.25	Atlanta Buenos Aires - Quilmes	2:0 ✺
26.03.25	Quilmes - Colegiales	1:0 ✺
Copa Argentina
22.03.25	Central Córdoba - Quilmes	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.9 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
27.10.24	Quilmes - San Miguel	1:1
08.06.24	San Miguel - Quilmes	1:0

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